Poll: California, Washington for Roosevelt; Oregon leans towards Dewey
Pacific Coast states expected to play big role in deciding election
By George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion
Princeton, New Jersey –
Franklin D. Roosevelt leads Thomas E. Dewey in popularity at this time in two of the three Pacific Coast states, California and Washington, but Governor Dewey has a slight advantage in the third – Oregon – a scientific sampling poll by the Institute reveals.
On the basis of interviewing conducted in representative areas throughout the three states, the Institute finds political sentiment among civilian voters on the West Coast shaping up today as follows. Each voter was asked how he would vote if the presidential election were being held today.
California only
Roosevelt 53% Dewey 47% Washington only
Roosevelt 53% Dewey 47% Oregon only
Roosevelt 49% Dewey 51%
In each of the three states, four percent of the voters interviewed said they were unable to decide as to their present preference.
A close race
The above figures reflect the political situation in the Pacific Coast states only as of the early part of this week.
During the past four weeks, the Institute has reported the results of its presidential polls in 17 states, with a total of 277 electoral votes.
Six of these states, with 138 electoral votes, have been found leaning toward Governor Dewey as of this time and 11 with 139 electoral votes, are in the Roosevelt column. The box score follows:
Dewey leading
| Electoral votes | Dewey | Roosevelt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | New York | 52% | 48% |
| 28 | Illinois | 54% | 46% |
| 25 | Ohio | 54% | 46% |
| 19 | Michigan | 57% | 43% |
| 13 | Indiana | 57% | 43% |
| 6 | Oregon | 51% | 49% |
| — | |||
| 138 |
Roosevelt leading
| Electoral votes | Dewey | Roosevelt | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Alabama | 20% | 80% |
| 9 | Arkansas | 33% | 78% |
| 8 | Florida | 32% | 68% |
| 12 | Georgia | 16% | 84% |
| 10 | Louisiana | 24% | 76% |
| 9 | Mississippi | 16% | 84% |
| 8 | South Carolina | 11% | 89% |
| 23 | Texas | 25% | 75% |
| 16 | Massachusetts | 48% | 52% |
| 25 | California | 47% | 53% |
| 8 | Washington | 47% | 53% |
| — | |||
| 139 |
All Institute surveys are sponsored by 129 newspapers, some Republican, some Democratic, some independent.
Impartial survey
The Institute’s sole function is to gather and report the facts about public opinion, regardless of which side the facts happen to favor. All ballots since the poll was organized in 1935 have been turned over to Princeton University and are available for inspection by leaders of all political parties and qualified students of public opinion.
The present results of the poll in the Pacific Coast states reflect a sharp trend away from President Roosevelt as compared to the last two presidential elections.
His present lead of 53 percent in California represents a drop of five percentage points since 1940, when Mr. Roosevelt polled 58 percent against Wendell Willkie. In Washington, the defection from Roosevelt has been six percentage points since 1940, and in Oregon five percentage points.
‘Important’ states
As things are shaping up on the political front, the seaboard states on the East and West Coasts will likely form the main battleground of the election.
The farm states in the central portion of the continent show a marked Republican advantage, while the Deep South continues to be strongly pro-Roosevelt.
This means that the outcome in November will hinge, to a large extent, on who carries the Pacific Coast states, and the New England and Mid-Atlantic states.