A heartfelt thanks for your support, You are welcome put in a question about that Patton qoute to Timeghost ( I did and learned a lot of new stuff), or share your experiences information about anything history. I would like to learn new stuff and learned a lot from also very young people without any degree,
If this sounds cynical to you it is not meant so. Everyone I talked to or mailed with told me they learned a lot of new stuff like me. Welcome here and hope you enjoy the episode.
Well wherever you go, maybe try to learn that claiming an idiotic quote and pawning it off as fact to support whatever position you wish to argue is ludicrous. Yes Patton said that and so what? it was 78 years ago and the world is different. Btw Patton got fired for his actions and quotes like this because he became an embarrassment to the allied cause. So this is indeed right up your alley.
In the last 6 days according to both Ukrainian and Russian bloggers Russia has lost approximately some 309 tanks, APCs and other vehicles as well as some 3300 killed and over 4000 wounded.
What makes this ironic is both the Ukrainians and Russian bloggers actually agree on the numbers as both are fairly close to the others estimates. This equates to roughly 4 regiments worth of men have been killed or wounded based on 2000 men per regiment.
Basically itâs become a meat grinder for the Russians. Throw wave after wave and hope eventually one wave will break through.
Itâs sad really that the people of Russia really donât know how badly the war is going for them.
Well they are advancing. They may get Adiivka yet although I wonder if that comes even close to justify the loss. But the war is portrayed differently on home fronts. I keep hearing not our war and itâs over, Russia won.
Objectively, Russia is winning as they have a good chunk of the territory they needed and since gains are being measured in meters, it wonât change fast. Ukraineâs manpower situation seems rather dire given the average age of their soldiers is I believe 43 now.
The West is very busy, if you ignore the headlines about âwunderwaffenâ. Compare the British supply situation in early June 1941 to the Ukrainian situation (ammunution and spareparts). Even ignoring that the âDunkirk Stile Viktoriesâ had been mainly Russian. And the demografic situation may be evaluated by looking at the French, German and Austrian situations at the end of 1915. Worse than bad, but only compared how wars had looked from America, blody but not commig close to becomme a critical part of the demografic data at home.
Well the west may be busy and I get that. The leading Ukraine General has admitted that right now it is essentially a stalemate and implied that Russia will get stronger because Ukraine does not have the power to degrade Russian forces faster than they increase them.
This is what happens when you fight someone 3 times your size, they can just wear you down. When you are drafting middle aged men into your army you are running out of them. You are also removing your most productive workers from businesses. What comes next? Drafting younger? That doesnât work to well either.
No matter how badly Russian losses look, they retain public support while the west looks to move on.
Now like you postulate, I may be overstating the manpower issues. I hope i am wrong. But my question is if Ukraine is saying itâs a stalemate, what would their next step be?
The next step (of many in beeing taken)
to transform the UkrAF to fight and winn a war nobody in the (non neutral) West had prepared for. Some minor details involving my (unimportant and insignifant) country:
And friends:
And do not forget that Ukraine had been a very important part of the Soviet military industry and now is conected to the supply chain of the EU with Euro supplied to go shopping.
All news from one day. In my evaluation the âdisarm the Ukrainians to save themâ is part of Russian disinformation warfare. (Ignoring the situation the SU faced after 190 days of Barbarossa)
Iâm not sure why you call yourself insignificant as a country. Long term I know Europe will provide far more aid than the fickle US. The US is taking 4 years to build greater shell production. You can bet if we needed the shells in Mexico it would happen far faster. Every dollar we send to Ukraine now has become a political game rather than a security issue.
So the development of European production is extremely important. The short term I.e next 2 years or so is going to suck. The million plus shells from North Korea seems to be having an impact. This summer, Ukraine had achieved local artillery superiority but I fear that is gone.
So past Artillery which will solve if the war goes on, Air Force. We should start seeing F16âs soon I Hope. Mine clearing equipment is a long term problem for both sides.
Disinformation is a huge part of this effort. A major news network put a story out the we were having discussions about peace talks with Ukraine. I think itâs bullcrap. But then our government is busy wetting their pants over the Middle East. The US lacks a credible security policy. I hope nato is stronger.
Sorry,âInsignificantâ was a mixture of nostalgia, sarcasm and wishfull thinking. My goverment is not wetting anny pants over Israel but trying to translate âStaatsräsonâ into Farsi.
The supply situation of the UkrAF is better than the published numbers, how much I do not know and I will not speculate.
I think that many people outside of military circles were disappointed in Ukraines faltering offensive this summer with many expecting a lightning fast breakthrough like last year. What many people canât see is what Ukrainian forces have been facing with the Russian front lines.
Defence in depth, minefields up to 15 kms deep, powerful built up trenches and strong points, anti tank ditches and dragons teeth, heavy artillery barrages(not very accurate but still powerful). Add to that the Russians still have numerical superiority in just about everything.
Itâs been a heavy slog for Ukraine with heavy casualties but what Ukraine has is better training in just about everything, superior artillery and MLRS, better equipment and a fairly robust air defence system. GB, American and Canadian(possibly French and Norwegian as well)trainers are likely to go into Ukraine either this winter or early next year and begin training soldiers in country.
What Ukraine lacks in is Air and naval superiority and manpower.
The biggest unknown right now and if the reports are true is Ukraine is massing troops and equipment in the Kherson region for a major push this winter across the Dnieper river to assault Crimea. Also if further reports are true Russia may actually be facing a troop shortage as they are no longer moving troops like they were 2 months ago. Until this actually happens though itâs all just supposition.
As always in war the only who are wining are those that profit from the war , selling weapons and profiteering from the sanctions ( Iran, Turkey ,China, America ,etc)
And as always those who have to do the fighting on both sides and the civilians are the once who are losing.
No it is still the same.
You ask about who is losing , in wars those that fight and the civilians are always the losersâŚ
And in all wars there are those that profiteer from the war.
Putin is still the cause of the war with the misery and a lot of blood on his hands and Ukraine still fighting for their lives because they have no other choice.
In broad terms neither side of the conflict are winning however with that being said Ukraine has done an admirable job of holding off and retaking lost territory from a much larger force.
Ukraine
-neither side reports on losses but it is thought by several think tanks that Ukrainian soldiers KIA number between 40-60,000.
Wounded are around 120,000 and of that amount about half return to active duty.
-about 80% of Ukrainians hold a favourable opinion of President Zelensky and are generally supportive of his reforms and keeping Ukraine on the public stage. With that being said a growing number are becoming war weary and are becoming more favourable of a mediated compromise.
-about 60% of Ukraineâs ground soldiers are equipped with western weaponry and equipment with the rest using soviet era and Russian weaponry and equipment. About 40% of Ukraineâs mobile equipment is western supplied with the rest being Russian and Soviet era.
-between Canada, Great Britain and the US before the conflict they had trained about 110,000 total soldiers from 2015-2021. Since the invasion around 160,000 have been trained in the US, Canada, GB, Poland, Germany and France with other NATO allies providing trainers to those countries.
-Morale still remains quite high and Ukrainian civilians are generally very supportive of the government and military
Russia
-like Ukraine Russia does not report on casualties but it is generally thought that 90-120,000 have been KIA with a further 250,000 wounded
-Russia has lost about 45% of its most modern equipment with an unknown number being unfit for duty.
-Russia has about 70,000 professional military personnel and about 175,000 to 200,000 conscripts. It is thought most of the conscripts are poorly trained and equipped which is supported by third party accounts
-despite leaked reports and multiple international news media reports most Russian citizens still have a positive view of President Putin and their military.
-morale amongst the Russian military is known to be quite low but many conscripts still believe what they are told until they get to the front lines which has led to mass suicide charges against Ukrainian positions
-it is thought that a third of Russias remaining helicopter fleet is grounded due to lack of spare parts. Their fighter jets are in better shape but not by much
Advantages
Russia has a deep pool of armoured vehicles and tanks and has a huge amount of natural resources to back it up. They have a huge population to replenish their ranks. They have a huge Navy and have AirPower.
Ukraine is well equipped and well trained n NATO tactics. High morale amongst the military and civilian populations. Has the backing of the most powerful military alliance in the world
Disadvantages
Russia has a huge morale issue in the military. Has poorly trained and equipped soldiers. Has both an ineffective navy and airforce. Is known to be running low on both artillery and shells.
Ukraine has no navy or AirPower. Has a limited supply of people to choose from. Its most powerful Ally the US is focusing its attention on the Middle East and Republican unrest in the US over Ukraine is coming to the forefront. Citizens do not want a protracted war.
In the end most of us want Ukraine to win but who knows what the future holds as neither side can afford to go on much longer although Ukraine has a bigger advantage in this with international support and logistics.
