I asked who is winning.
Few months ago clear answer here was that Ukraine is winning and Russia is growing weaker.
Obviously different tune nowadays.
Sides in the conflict are NATO/G7 and Russia/BRICS.
Try again.
The automatic translation of the provided German subtitles work. The video is not entertainig (and does not âsink shipsâ) but is focussed on problem solving.
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Famous allies India and China are.
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Very interesting. You said it was not entertaining but it is all about the logistics which makes everything go. I like the discussion about building new production capability. Most of our production capacity is maxed but we extend contracts rather than build new facilities. Without those new facilities you cannot expand anything quickly.
I noted that the Lithuanian permanent brigade is now a thing. I hope this is an added brigadenot just a moved one.
I also enjoyed the discussion around the Tiger gunship. You do like your cat names. It seems like you are considering this as only a defensive weapon that is obsolete. In the US, we have the 101st air assault division dedicated towards deep strikes. It would be interesting to see if this remains viable in modern combat environments.
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At the present it will be a upgraded but not an additional brigade. The Lithuanian Army plans to upgrade their force with Leopard A8 MBTs. The very important news in my opinion is the change of the Baltic States from three different (Canadian, British and Dutch/German supported) national sandboxes to a 3 + 3 format. Estland and Lettland have already orderd IRIS T SLM, the German Brigade providing their systems and Dutch F 35 and British and German Eurofighters becomming more interoperational. The Dutch/German, British and Lituanian landforces are already using in many cases the same supplier. But still much space for simplification of logistics.
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Given that Ukraine has captured a bridgehead on on the West Bank of the Dnipro and repelled all efforts to capture Andrivka, weâre back to Ukraine winning.
I never expected a lightning maneuvre war, this war is much, much more like WWI where gains are small until they become big at tge end.
And Putin was pining for peace yesterday at the G20. Thatâs called losing.
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Iâm not sure I would call that winning but I definitely feel that Ukraine is keeping the initiative. They continue to surprise and Russians seem to react slowly and the Russian advances have not impressed anywhere. At this rate in less than a generation, Ukraine might be totally free. And hopefully 2/3 of the country might be usable. I know this, Ukraine battlefields will not be cleaned up in my lifetime.
This is a war of attrition right now with minimal gains by either side however the Dnipro crossing likely caught the Russians off guard big time and are struggling to figure out where to send troops.
Estimates place about 400,000 Russian troops in Occupied Ukraine with around 60-70% of those troops not being well trained or equipped. Estimates put weekly Russian losses at 15,000-19,000 (KIA and wounded)which is a huge amount yet there is a net gain of about 24,000 that replaces those losses weekly.
Facing the Russians are about 600-750,000 Ukrainian military personnel of which most are well trained and equipped. With that being said while the Ukrainians can currently replace KIA and wounded person for person they can only do that finitely whereas the Russians still have a huge pool of bodies to choose from.
I feel that if Ukraine continues with its success in the Kherson region and say even take another 30-50 kilometres of territory which will put Crimea in serious jeopardy I think you will see Russia after some serious fighting finally put feelers out to end the war.
Right now Ukraine holds multiple advantages but the longer this drags on the fewer those advantages become. My personal feeling is the Kherson Region will be the deciding factor in the conflict. But then again I could be wrong.
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Question is - why?
How is investment in non-productive activities helping population that is already suffering?
With what resources would Europe sustain these investments? What markets do they intend to export to, in order to sustain such non-productive investment? What is the benefit for general population?
Itâs not a war. It is a military operation for demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine and formation of a new security system in Europe.
It is a war.
As for Europe, seeing as 90% of all European countries belong to NATO, I believe Europe has already made its choice in that regard.
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Most of European countries are vassals to US. They have no choice.
Interesting as this is probably the key issue.
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Why bad news are sometimes good news:
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Looks like a honest video, kudos to the Austrian Officers. Lying helps no one: Die ukrainische Offensive ist gescheitert - Was ist zu erwarten (youtube.com)
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For people less fluent in Austrian:
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Good point, not everyone once had to fly every 2 weeks to Austria for work. And the accent was frikking difficult at first if you learned it from the WDR! 
Been thinking about this subject and trying to draw some conclusions from it. These were excellent presentations and I agree with much of the current assessment. The frontline is a stalemate with major gains being a kilometer at a time.russia has launched an enormous amount of attacks and has gained Marinka. A small town of which looking at pictures has not one undamaged building I can see. Ukraine is outnumbered but is skillfully defending with local counterattacks. They have as near as I can tell no abilities to seriously penetrate Russian positions but they also seem to be aware of this and are not wasting the lives of their men.
I think the briefing covered all of that but I do think they missed some of the impacts of deep attacks. Ukraine has been quite successful in turning the Black Sea fleet into a punching bag and this is entertaining for morale at least even though it changes nothing.
The West is seriously losing the propaganda war and possibly the intelligence war though I would say what we know and what we are told are hopefully very different. We were told Russia was short on everything but the battlefield doesnât reflect this. They were out of missiles yet the just launched their largest missile attack of the war. I must conclude we were lied to to get more money for Ukraine. Now that is a stalemate they tell us the war is lost. The NY Times says Ukraine should let Russia win. The fickle US public now feels that money to Ukraine is a bad deal (although there is significant polling data to suggest otherwise.)
Enough ranting as I donât want to waste your time. I have lost all faith in public press and in most governmental statements. There is no such thing as a straight forward statement. Ukraine is worth supporting because they are in the right to defend themselves. Iâm hoping such skullduggery can happen in Congress to get money but the US has perhaps the worst leadership of my lifetime and is going to rip into itself in 2024. Maybe 2025 see things settle out but I hope Europe holds things together in the meantime.
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