Don’t tell me, Lichtenstein?
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The list was about “unlikely”.
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Well, the Lichtenstein Republican Liberation Front can’t even organize a bathroom trip.
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Being sick and sleep deprived over the past 9 days has given me plenty of opportunity to watch videos on YouTube, telegram and patroon channels.
Most of what I watched was about Russian sanctions through independent media, westerners that live in Russia and mainstream media. The big question is are sanctions truly hurting Russia? Mainstream media says yes it is. Independent media tends to be on the fence and westerners living there say yes but with caveats.
It should be an easy answer to a simple question but in reality it isn’t. An easy marker to tell if prices are affected is food. Many supermarkets appear to be fully stocked and food is still relatively cheap but when you look at the bigger picture what you see missing is western foods from Europe, North America and many Asian countries which before the invasion were plentiful in many grocery stores and convenience stores. Those foods have been replaced by food made in Russia, China or other regional markets and while the food is plentiful many of the ingredients used tend to be suspect or not approved food grade food. Soft drinks like coke and Pepsi products are no longer sold in Russia so they created their own version which apparently has a similar taste but also use different additives as western additives are no longer available and has lead to some outbreaks of illness from drinking these products.
Which leads to medicines and first aid products which appears to be readily available in many Russian pharmacies and stores but again a closer look shows some medicines which are only available from the west are curiously absent and replacement medicines and products made in Russia are prevalent on the shelves. Add to that first aid kits while appearing to be plentiful are missing some key products like medical gauze, tourniquets and even some types of bandages as they are in short supply.
Shopping malls also seem to be very busy and well stocked with common products like jewelry, clothing and shoe stores but again in one mall in St. Petersburg several clothing stores had knockoffs of products like Levi Jeans and Nike Shoes likely made in China. Also a lot of the clothing and jewelry appeared to be of lower quality as well. One British couple living in Volgograd bought several pairs of pants and leggings and discovered that while some were well made and built others almost immediately started to fray and rip at the seams. One thing that was noticed is depending on where you live in Russia some malls have almost no boarded up stores while others had 50% occupancy.
Electronics especially those of western make can still be found but are extremely expensive to buy and are increasingly rare to find however they are being replaced by Russian made electronics which can be very dangerous to use as many of the Russian products don’t come with a lot of safety features like to protect against electrical surges or overheating which has lead to an increase in house fires in some regions of Russia. This is due to the fact they can’t get western micro chips that help with protecting equipment.
Overall while on the surface Russian people don’t seem to be hurting much from sanctions a deeper look shows a reliance on less reliable equipment, questionable additives to food, cheaper materials for clothing and other questionable products.
So are sanctions hurting? The answer is both yes and no. Foods, electronics, clothing and basic toiletries are readily available but it is buyer beware as you are not quite sure what your buying and there is a very real possibility of electronics damaging your home or persons and many things are missing even the most basic of safety features due to lack of western technology and the very real danger of becoming sick or dying from eating or using a product with questionable additives.
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Thank you for your Information. The Russian people are not the target of the sanctions. That the Russian consumer has less quality products may be a point to hope that the Russian Army is in the same position.
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Excellent summary. Russia produced so many supplies they won’t starve, freeze or suffer undue hardship. The finer points of quality of life will deteriorate for sure but Russians have historically been used to. Shortages. They will endure this. Putin is counting on this and I believe he is betting The EU will break which I also do not expect.
I would love to know how their military production is affected. You see all sorts of dire predictions. But reality is much more unknown. Ukraine is equally facing supply issues too.
My conclusions is both sides have been hurt but neither is breaking and I don’t know where this war goes. Russia is slowly advancing but Ukraine is preparing so we will see who handles winter better. I don’t see the circumstances which might end the war either.
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I didn’t touch on the military end as it is a big one in itself but militarily Russia is hurting and hurting bad. Quick summary below which will miss a lot of information because I’m still sick and sleep is my friend now.
Their military relies heavily on western supplied electronic components for everything from use in smart bombs, precision guided equipment, targeting systems and many of their modern tanks, APCs, vehicles and planes and helicopters rely on western supplied chips, electronic components and other western things.
With this being said they are fully capable of producing dumb vehicles, armour and flying machines that do not rely heavily on electronics but would suffer hugely on the battlefield because they wouldn’t have thermal imaging, targeting systems or even EFI fuel systems as all require microchips. Add to that it is getting harder to source replacement parts for their jets and helicopters as once again Russia relies on western supplied materials for its parts.
Add to that unlike WW2 Russia cannot produce enough equipment to replace battlefield losses as like many western countries only government accredited facilities can produce military equipment, armour and vehicles. At best it is thought that Russia can turn out 25-30 basic tanks a month with no modern guidance, targeting or infrared systems which is no where enough to replace lost armour on the battlefield and said replacement tanks would be considered dumb tanks and be a death trap for anyone operating them on a modern battlefield.
As to the airforce Russia is struggling to keep their fleet airborne as once again many electronic components are western supplied and cannot be produced in house as like many Western countries lack the facilities to produce reliable electronics.
Lastly it has been reported that Russia’s stockpile of precision guided munitions, smart bombs and radar guided munitions suffer from a high failure rate. As an example any smart bombs, precision guided munitions and so forth produced for the US military must have less than a 2% failure rate or it does not get made. In Russia some of their precision guided munitions have a failure rate of as much as 60% which is why there are so many videos that have surfaced of Russian rockets blowing up or failing to launch.
So on the military side sanctions are definitely hurting Russia and hurting them hard but it is a fact they are keeping well hidden from the populace and even their own military.
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Again awesome reply. Take time to get healthy. Being sick over the holidays is no fun.
I do wonder about the shortages being overstated as I have heard it admitted that we didn’t have much idea of their real starting numbers but I have no doubt they cannot produce enough to replace their usage. The entire West can barely supply Ukraine.
I do wonder if China can make up some of the tech shortages. Do they even want to? And my understanding is that China cannot produce the real high end chips mostly produced in Taiwan. So Russia scrounges from every country it can and relies on the dumb munitions it can produce. Artillery artillery artillery. This makes me think of Peru’s latest video discussing tactics and learning and it feels very appropriate here.
Thanks again.
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CAS has been less cost effective artillery, but much more mobile. In Ukraine the air is not dominated by one side, so it is back to the barrels and missiles from the ground.
Serbia was extremely small country, that went through a decade of cruel sanctions, facing largest military alliance ever existed, at the time of the peak of US hegemony.
It was the time when world was still believing that West will respect their own rules of international law.
That war was a wake-up call for the rest of the world - showing true face of the new world order.
Russia and China learned that West is not interest in collaboration but pure domination.
No, Serbia didn’t have problem with morale. Serbs were aware that NATO aggression is just a battle. Serbs live history, they know it doesn’t end. They have achieved what they could - much better results than offered in Rambouillet Agreement.
What we see happening in world today had roots in what happened in 1990s in Yugoslavia. Break-up of Yugoslavia was a test for planned breaking-up of Russia.
BTW NATO has attempted land campaign on Kosovo through Prokletije mountains. Search “battle of Kosare”.
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As Indy often says, context is important.
First, most of Russian people still remember how they lived when Putin got into power after a decade of democracy.
Second, Russia’s military doctrine is designed to defend Russian land and people. Land is huge and people are not just those living today. And for defense it doesn’t need to project force far away from home. It only needs to prevent enemies projecting theirs.
Third, western technology is overrated - it is neither western nor unachievable by others. Let’s just remember that Skylab went down long before Mir, and for long time ISS was supplied by use of Russian technology.
Oh, demilitarization of Ukraine now includes removing its capability to produce rocket engines and rockets used by some western powers for their space programs. Russians were hoping that Ukraine would be interested to negotiate early on, in order to preserve those capacities, but their friends made sure that doesn’t happen.
Context is important.
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Yeah, how’s the war going? Ukraine defended its capital and mounted two successful offensives this year in Kharkhiv and Kherson.
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Try to be an adult: The grownups in Yugoslavia broke it up, not some cabal of sinster actors.
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Good to see you are alive. I thought maybe you had signed up with the Wagner group. You don’t need a sledgehammer to the head.
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Yeah, wanted to see if this echo chamber still cooks.
Not in favour of violence - too much suffered from it.
Oh dear. You should ask your money back for either,
- your education, or
- cabal of sinister actors your taxes pay for, for not doing their job
And, I can add that Russians have understood it the way I said. Ultimately, events since then showed clearly what it was all about.
War is going terrible for my Slavic brothers and European friends. On the other hand, as Serbs say - snow doesn’t fall to cover the hill but for every beast to leave its trace - we now see true face of Western values, democracy, free trade, respect of rule of law, etc. So, I believe that emerging world would be better, more just and based on respect and collaboration.
Yes, it is my education.
Yes, so respect and cooperation in progress:
Serbia places its troops on Kosovo border on ‘highest level of combat readiness’
by The Kyiv Independent news deskDecember 27, 2022 6:41 am
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Serbia’s Interior Minister Bratislav Gasic said on Dec. 26 that he had "ordered the full combat readiness” of the country’s police and security troops on the border with Kosovo.
Gasic said in a statement that he acted on the orders of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic so that “all measures be taken to protect the Serbian people in Kosovo," AP reported.
The move comes amid increased tensions between the two states and claims that Kosovo is preparing an attack on ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo.
The government in Kosovo has not commented on the claims but has previously accused Serbian President Vucic of deliberately stirring tensions between the two countries.
A day before, NATO-led peacekeepers in Kosovo said they were investigating a shooting incident in northern Kosovo at a road barricade manned by local ethnic Serbs.
Earlier in August, tensions also flared when the government in Pristina, Kosovo said Serbs living in the north would have to use license plates issues in Pristina. Roadblocks were set up in protest, but were eventually removed with the oversight of NATO peacekeepers.
Serbia has never recognized Kosovo, which has an ethnic Albanian majority, as an independent state after it broke away from Serbia following a war in 1998-99. The United States and most European Union member states have recognized Kosovo’s independence, which was officially declared in 2008.
Serbia, whose military is armed through Russian donations and purchases, has been threatening force against Kosovo since it became independent.