The Pittsburgh Press (October 27, 1944)
Poll: Five big states hold key to election with race neck-and-neck
Pennsylvania still 50–50; 21 states too close to be certain for either candidate
By Dr. George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion
How civilian vote stands today
Definitely for Roosevelt today
Roosevelt Dewey South Carolina 87% 13% Mississippi 87% 13% Georgia 80% 20% Louisiana 78% 22% Alabama 77% 23% Florida 71% 29% Arkansas 70% 30% North Carolina 69% 31% Virginia 64% 36% Tennessee 64% 36% Texas 64% 36% Arizona 58% 42% Utah 57% 43% Rhode Island 56% 44% Montana 54% 46% Nevada 54% 46% California 54% 46% Washington 54% 46% 179 electoral votes
Definitely for Dewey today
Roosevelt Dewey Nebraska 37% 63% Kansas 37% 63% South Dakota 37% 63% North Dakota 40% 60% Iowa 44% 56% Colorado 45% 55% Vermont 45% 55% Indiana 46% 54% Wisconsin 46% 54% 66 electoral votes
Pivotal states
Roosevelt Dewey Kentucky 53% 47% Connecticut 52% 48% Maryland 51% 49% Massachusetts 50% 50% Pennsylvania 50% 50% Delaware 50% 50% Oklahoma 50% 50% Oregon 50% 50% Missouri 49% 51% West Virginia 49% 51% New Hampshire 49% 51% New York 49% 51% New Mexico 49% 51% New Jersey 48% 52% Illinois 48% 52% Idaho 48% 52% Ohio 47% 53% Michigan 47% 53% Maine 47% 53% Wyoming 47% 53% Minnesota 47% 53% 286 electoral votes
With Election Day little more than a week away, latest figures in the Institute’s state-by-state poll show Roosevelt-Dewey sentiment almost equally divided.
Twenty-one pivotal states, in which sentiment is too close to list them in either candidate’s column, are the big battleground.
Pennsylvania is still equally divided – neither candidate showing the slightest advantage.
The results in this poll, it must be remembered, are obtained from civilian voters only. Service voters cannot be polled under the law, and the service vote may determine the outcome if the civilian vote is as close as now indicated.
Dewey shows strength
Any advantage which the Democrats may have gained through heavy registration in large industrial centers has been offset in the last two weeks by increased evidence of Dewey strength.
The situation is substantially the same as it was when the last nationwide poll was printed on Oct. 15.
With an estimated voter turnout of 47 million civilians, President Roosevelt is found polling 51 percent of the popular vote and Governor Dewey 49 percent. This does not include any votes of men and women in the armed services.
Indications are still that the decision as to the winner will rest in five large industrial states which are still hovering near the 50-50 line — Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Connecticut.
122 electoral votes in doubt
The electoral votes of these very important states total 122. If Mr. Roosevelt gets all of them his electoral vote would assume landslide proportions. If, on the other hand, Mr. Dewey got them he would win with a comfortable majority.
State-by-state analysis shows 18 states with 179 electoral votes definitely in the Roosevelt column and nine states with 66 electoral votes definitely in the Dewey column.
The remaining 21 states with 286 electoral votes are pivotal areas where the lead for either candidate is less than 54 percent.
Among the pivotal states, Mr. Dewey has the advantage at present in 13 and Mr. Roosevelt in three.
Roosevelt improves total
Compared to the poll published Oct. 15, Mr. Roosevelt has improved his total of states definitely for him and Mr. Dewey has lost ground; but of pivotal states leaning to one candidate or the other, Mr. Dewey has gained ground and Mr. Roosevelt lost ground.
The comparison is as follows:
| Today | Oct. 15 | |
|---|---|---|
| Definitely for Roosevelt | 119 | 158 |
| Definitely for Dewey | 66 | 121 |
| Leaning toward Roosevelt | 27 | 85 |
| Leaning toward Dewey | 189 | 107 |
Adding the states leaning toward Dewey to the states definitely for him gives him 255 electoral votes; adding the definite Roosevelt states to those leaning toward him gives him 206 votes.
The remaining 70 electoral votes are in the five states dividing evenly.
It takes 266 electoral votes to win.
Aside from the normal margin of error in all polling operations, an error which in this country and four foreign countries amounts to between three and four percent, information is not available on one important segment of the voting population – voters in the Armed Forces.
Military regulations forbid the polling of these voters, and the readers therefore must take this tact into account in interpreting the results shown here. No one knows how the soldiers will vote in any specific state, but it is believed that in some states the soldier vote may add as much as one percent to the Roosevelt figure.
In a state which on the basis of poll samples is found to be evenly divided, the vote of the Armed Forces can obviously be the deciding factor.
Final figures on political sentiment in the 48 states, based on polling which will be going on this week and next, will be reported Monday, Nov. 6.