Poll: New York City shows trend from Roosevelt, but he has big lead
Poll gives Democrats 57% majority in city but vote of only 40% in balance of state
By George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion
New York City, which in the last presidential election cast more votes than the combined total of 16 states, shows a trend away from President Roosevelt in the latest balloting conducted by the Institute.
However, the President still leads in the city by a substantial majority of civilian votes.
Balloting was completed shortly before Roosevelt’s visit to New York City Oct. 21, when he spent most of the day touring the city. Consequently, the figures do not indicate the effect of that visit. A new survey will measure any last-minute changes in sentiment.
Up to the time of the President’s visit, the survey found the following situation:
NEW YORK CITY
(Civilians only)
| Roosevelt | 57% |
| Dewey | 43% |
This represents a shift of four percent away from Mr. Roosevelt in the city since the 1940 election, which he received 61 percent.
A survey during registration week in New York City indicates the turnout increase over expectations will not necessarily help the Democrats more than the Republicans. It was found that the new registrants divide about the same as old registrants in their preferences for Governor Dewey or Mr. Roosevelt.
Upstate is GOP
In previous years, the city has cast about half the vote in New York State. This year, the indications point to a somewhat higher ratio for the city as against the rest of the state – a likelihood which will bring cheer to the Democrats.
Upstate New York continue to follow its traditional political pattern, being overwhelmingly Republican. Institute balloting there points to an increase of 2.0 percent in Republican sentiment since 1940.
UPSTATE NEW YORK
(Civilians only)
| Dewey | 60% |
| Roosevelt | 40% |
The 12-year trend in the city and upstate is shown below. The percentages are in terms of the vote for Roosevelt.
| NYC | Upstate | |
|---|---|---|
| 1932 | 71% | 44% |
| 1936 | 75% | 45% |
| 1940 | 61% | 42% |
| Today | 57% | 40% |
For the state as a whole, the balloting indicates no change since the recently reported figure of 51 percent for Governor Dewey, 49 percent for Mr. Roosevelt.
New York has been a comparatively close state in quite a few elections. In 1940, President Roosevelt carried it with only 52 percent of the major party popular vote. In the 1870s and 1880s, in three presidential elections in a row, the outcome in New York State was determined by only a few thousand votes.