The Pittsburgh Press (November 5, 1944)
Because it will be close –
Election in Pennsylvania still very much a tossup
Trend found definitely Republican, but how much remains to be seen
By Kermit McFarland
Pennsylvania, according to all gauges of public opinion, is a doubtful state in Tuesday’s election.
The outcome, as nearly as it can be measured, is uncertain mainly because it promises to be close.
The trend is definitely is Republican, as it has been the last six years.
Whether or not the trend is strong enough to swing the state’s 35 electoral votes to Governor Thomas E. Dewey, the Republican candidate for President, is a question on which no unbiased, competent authority will do more than merely guess.
‘Take your choice’
As it looks, it is even money and take your choice.
As a result, the state in the last two weeks has come to be regarded as the key to the result of the national election.
Most observers believe Mr. Dewey must carry it to win. A majority believe President Roosevelt, because of the running start he will get from the Solid South, could lose Pennsylvania and still win, providing he carried some of the other large industrial states of the North.
1940 recalled
In 1940, against the late Wendell L. Willkie, Mr. Roosevelt carried 25 of the 67 counties. This time, he faces a loss of six to eight of the smaller counties in this group and pared-down majorities in most of them.
His vote, however, may be increased in normally Republican counties because of wartime industrial expansion which has added thousands of new voters to these counties.
The President won the state in 1940 by 281,000. He carried Allegheny County by 104,000 and Philadelphia by 177,000, the two together being almost precisely the total of his statewide plurality.
Here it is generally expected his majority will be reduced, possibly to 75,000 which is a commonly accepted figure. However, private polls and other measuring devices in some cases have indicated an even greater decline in the President’s popularity here.
GOP is hopeful
Republicans are hoping to hold the Roosevelt lead in this county to 50,000.
Philadelphia appears to be the principal question mark. If the President holds his majority there, as indicated by the polls, the probability of his carrying the state will be greatly enhanced. Republicans there think they can hold him to a lead of less than 100,000.
Both the soft and hard coal fields still appear to be in the Roosevelt column, although by sliced majorities, according to most opinion.
In other counties, frequently or usually Democratic, Mr. Roosevelt is in more trouble, judging by the standard signs of measuring voter sentiment.
GOP active
Mr. Dewey’s prospects in this state have been helped by the aggressiveness and the intensive operations of the Republican state organization, pepped up by the scent of a kill. Meanwhile, the once potent Democratic organization has slipped, badly in some sections, leaving Mr. Roosevelt to pull his own weight.
Democrats, aided by the CIO Political Action Committee, are basing their main hope of carrying the state on turning out the “labor” vote on Election Day. All along they have been fearful that war plant workers, who are in the money and therefore not “mad at anybody,” might not come out in full force.
Stirring them up was the main purpose of Mr. Roosevelt’s sole visit to the state, his tour and speech in Philadelphia on Oct. 27.
If the election in Pennsylvania is as close as all the dopesters believe, the disposition of the state’s 35 votes in the Electoral College may not be determined until about Dec. 1, when the count of military ballots will be completed.
Military vote important
More than 650,000 military ballots have been mailed to members of the Armed Forces, both in this country and overseas, and latest reports showed a return of more than 225,000. Military ballots marked not later than Tuesday will be accepted up to 10:00 a.m. EWT Nov. 22, when the official military ballot count begins.
If either candidate for President manages to carry the civilian vote by less than 100,000, the military vote is sure to be the deciding factor. It undoubtedly will be the deciding factor in some of the legislative contests and perhaps even in Congressional contests.
Surveys throughout the state indicate that while there has been less public demonstration over the presidential campaign than in previous years, there is a high degree of voter interest in the election, indicating a possible record turnout of voters. Registration is high despite the absence of hundreds of thousands in the armed forces and the major shifts in population brought about by war industry.
Both sides optimistic
Rival political leaders here yesterday issued optimistic statements concerning the Tuesday prospects.
Democratic State Chairman David L. Lawrence predicted the President would carry Pennsylvania by a bigger majority than he received in 1940.
Republican County Chairman James F. Malone forecast the biggest Republican vote in Allegheny County in the last 12 years.
Lawrence cites reasons
Mr. Lawrence gave six reasons for his forecast.
He said the people trust Commander-in-Chief Roosevelt’s direction of the war, that they do not trust “the ‘deathbed’ conversion of the predominantly isolationist Republican Party, including Dewey, to international cooperation,” that labor is more militant than in 1940, that Mr. Dewey is “no Willkie,” that the Dewey campaign “hasn’t clicked” because of “fouling, too much vituperation, too much bigotry, too much pure malice and hate, hope for a light yote is out the window.”
Full turnout urged
Mr. Malone said he believed the vote in Allegheny County could decide the national election “on the simple basis that a big enough Republican vote here can carry the state and the state can carry the nation.” He urged a full turnout of voters, saying:
Undoubtedly the stay-at-homes who avoid their duty could decide the result of the election if they threw aside their lethargy and cast Republican votes Tuesday.
Mr. Malone said the Dewey-Bricker ticket has “aroused more Public enthusiasm, more hard work on the part of party workers and more support from political independents than any campaign in the experience of local politicians since the 1920s.”