The Wilmington Morning Star (August 13, 1944)
Congressional ‘Suttleties’
By Howard Suttle, Star-News Washington Bureau
Washington – (Aug. 12)
Back in Washington after a vacation in the “disgruntled, but still solid South,” we find that those who frequent the National Press Club’s council table – where the “problems of the world are solved daily” – have currently placed President Roosevelt out in front in his campaign for a fourth term.
“The boys” – meaning the fellows who chronicle the daily activity of this wartime capital of the world for the press – are generally willing to back up their opinions with cold cash, with Emil Hurja, versatile editor of Pathfinder Magazine, virtually a lone wolf as an enthusiastic supporter of the GOP at anything near even money.
Summing up the situation following a lengthy luncheon council table conference, it would appear that the Roosevelt-Truman ticket has a total of 20 states in the bag, with electoral votes aggregating 188, as against the Dewey-Bricker slate’s 16 states, with a total of 152 electoral votes. This leaves 12 doubtful states, with 191 electoral votes, but most agree that more than half these states are showing a trend toward the fourth-termers.
Concentrate on New York
Both parties are certain to concentrate their blitz guns upon New York, having 47 electoral votes, and Pennsylvania, with 35. A total of 266 electoral votes are necessary to cinch the election.
Council table conclusions would provide for a distribution of the votes as follows:
| Democratic states | Vote | 1940 majorities |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 11 | 208,000 Democratic |
| Arizona | 4 | 41,000 Democratic |
| Arkansas | 9 | 116,000 Democratic |
| California | 25 | 526,000 Democratic |
| Florida | 8 | 223,000 Democratic |
| Georgia | 12 | 242,000 Democratic |
| Kentucky | 11 | 147,000 Democratic |
| Louisiana | 10 | 267,000 Democratic |
| Missouri | 15 | 87,000 Democratic |
| Mississippi | 9 | 166,000 Democratic |
| Montana | 4 | 46,000 Democratic |
| Nevada | 2 | 10,000 Democratic |
| New Mexico | 4 | 24,000 Democratic |
| North Carolina | 14 | 396,000 Democratic |
| Oklahoma | 10 | 126,000 Democratic |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 44,000 Democratic |
| South Carolina | 8 | 94,000 Democratic |
| Tennessee | 12 | 182,000 Democratic |
| Utah | 4 | 61,000 Democratic |
| Virginia | 11 | 126,000 Democratic |
| — | — | — |
| TOTAL | 188 |
| Republican states | Vote | 1940 majorities |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 6 | 14,000 Republican |
| Idaho | 4 | 21,000 Democratic |
| Illinois | 28 | 95,000 Democratic |
| Iowa | 10 | 54,000 Republican |
| Kansas | 8 | 125,000 Republican |
| Maine | 5 | 7,000 Republican |
| Michigan | 19 | 7,000 Republican |
| Minnesota | 11 | 48,000 Democratic |
| Nebraska | 6 | 89,000 Republican |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 15,000 Democratic |
| North Dakota | 4 | 30,000 Republican |
| Ohio | 25 | 147,000 Democratic |
| South Dakota | 4 | 46,000 Republican |
| Vermont | 3 | 14,000 Republican |
| Wisconsin | 12 | 25,000 Democratic |
| Wyoming | 3 | 7,000 Democratic |
| — | — | — |
| TOTAL | 152 |
| “Doubtful” states | Vote | 1940 majorities |
|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | 8 | 56,000 Democratic |
| Delaware | 3 | 13,000 Democratic |
| Indiana | 13 | 25,000 Republican |
| Maryland | 8 | 115,000 Democratic |
| Massachusetts | 16 | 137,000 Democratic |
| New Jersey | 16 | 71,000 Democratic |
| New York | 47 | 224,000 Democratic |
| Oregon | 6 | 39,000 Democratic |
| Pennsylvania | 35 | 282,000 Democratic |
| Texas | 23 | 641,000 Democratic |
| Washington | 8 | 140,000 Democratic |
| West Virginia | 8 | 123,000 Democratic |
| — | — | — |
| TOTAL | 191 |
Conceding for the sake of argument that the “council table” analysis of the Democratic and Republican states is about as accurate as experienced and unbiased forecasters could make it, although there may be one or two in each column that could cause argument, the fact that there are 191 electoral votes at stake in the “doubtful” states is proof positive that Mr. Roosevelt faces the battle of his career in his efforts to retain the helm of the Ship of State and have a voice in “winning the war” and "winning the peace” that follows.
Despite the efforts of Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York, the Republican candidate, to remove the subject of post-war collaboration as an issue in the current campaign, the fact remains that the people generally regard the GOP as the party of the isolationists. Mr. Roosevelt, astute politician that he is, certainly is not going to permit removal of the collaboration issue if he can help it.
Must repeat declaration
Most of those who frequent the “council table” agree that with such men as former President Herbert Hoover and Senator Robert A. Taft of Ohio, among the leading sponsors of the Dewey-Bricker ticket. Governor Dewey is going to have to repeat, again and again, his declaration favoring America’s collaboration with other nations in a post-war program to preserve the peace, embraced in a speech the New York executive delivered before the American Newspaper Publishers Association last April.
The age-old high tariff policy of the GOP and the isolationist sentiment of Col. Robert R. McCormick’s Chicago Tribune and members of the Old Guard diehard group who have retained their seats in Congress most certainly will be remembered by many election-wise Americans who know from bitter experience that platform planks of both parties are often designed more as stepping stones into office than as permanent policies to be fought for after election.
Recent Gallup polls give Governor Dewey a slight edge in New York, and there are many here who point to the Republican Governor’s heavy majority in 1942. But there are also many who, while conceding that the diminutive Empire State executive is a vote-getter, insist that the situation will be different when he’s running against FDR. New York’s 47 electoral votes, plus the apparent closeness of the vote, will make that state the chief battleground of the campaign.
Ranking next to New York in importance is Pennsylvania, with its 35 votes and also considered a close state.
The recent transportation strike in Philadelphia is certain to be a factor in the Nov. 7 balloting. Asserted reason for the strike was objection employees to the promotion to streetcar conductors of eight Negroes. A federal grand jury is now investigating the matter, and certain leaders of each political party are endeavoring to place the blame upon the other. The presiding judge spoke of reports that the strike had political objectives, and similar belief was expressed by Attorney General Francis Biddle.
It is a known fact that President Roosevelt’s chief strength in Pennsylvania lies in the Congress of Industrial Organizations and its vast membership in the state’s numerous industries. Democratic Senator Joseph Guffey is champion of the CIO in congress and was a leader in carrying the Quaker state for the third term ticket in 1940.
In the event that Democratic Chairman Robert E. Hannegan and his cohorts should succeed in throwing both New York and Pennsylvania into the Roosevelt-Truman column, veteran Washington newspapermen concede that there will be a fourth term.