740.00119 Potsdam/7-2845
U.S. Delegation Memorandum
[Babelsberg,] July 28, 1945
Subject: POLISH ECONOMIC POSITION, NECESSARY IMPORTS, AVAILABLE EXPORTS AND CREDIT REQUIREMENTS FOR RECONSTRUCTION
(Mr. Clayton presiding for the U.S.; speaker for the Poles, Mr. Minc, Ministry of Industry.)
1. Agriculture
A grain balance can be realized with some hardship in the year 1945-46. The livestock position, however, is bad, with cattle numbers at 25% of the 1939 level and the number of horses below 20% of prewar. Thus the meat and fat position is catastrophic. A small surplus of potatoes and sugar is expected. In the harvest year 1946-47 grain supplies are expected to increase. The meat and fat position will continue to be difficult. Reference is to the entire area currently administered by the Polish Government.
2. Lumber
While Poland was a pre-war exporter of lumber, cuttings now would have to be stopped for 16 years to restore reserves to normal. There will be shortages of timber for industrial purposes, e.g. in the coal mines and for the production of cellulose, and reconstruction generally will be limited.
3. Industry Generally
In the area of 1939 Poland, industry is operating at 50% of pre-war levels. In December 1944 the textile industry was worked at the capacity of available spindles, which was 60% of pre-war in old Poland. Raw cotton supplies are adequate under the trade agreement with Russia. There is a wool deficit. In the case of shoes, there is a serious deficiency due to the lack of raw materials, including tannery materials. The tanneries are intact.
4. Coal
Currently the daily output is 18,000 tons including output of German Upper Silesian mines but excluding the output of the Walden-burg area, which is about 7,000-8,000 tons. Production and employment in the German Upper Silesian mines has been as follows in the past five months:
| Production Thousands of Tons | Miners Employed | |
|---|---|---|
| February | 40.5 | 3,900 |
| March | 92.0 | 6,900 |
| April | 123.0 | 20,300 |
| May | 258.0 | 21,000 |
| June | 473.0 | 25,500 |
All the miners employed are Poles.
The total output including the output in German Upper Silesian mines, which was 1,860,000 in June, is expected to be 3,750,000 in December. The total production in the five months ending with December is expected to be 15,000,000 tons. Domestic consumption in the same period will be 6,250,000, while export commitments, which actually have been made or are expected to be made to the Soviet Union, Sweden, be a balance available for export over and above these commitments amounting to about 5,000,000 tons in the last five months of 1945. Stocks currently are 1.5 million tons. Coal export prices at the port of Danzig, as fixed in existing export commitments, average 8.42.
The surplus referred to above will be available at the pits. However, the transport situation is extremely tight. Unless additional transport facilities are available, it will not be possible to move this surplus to ports for export. The domestic consumption of 6,250,000 tons is a minimum, and the total will be increased if it is not possible to export the calculated surplus. Transport requirements to move the coal to local industrial users are small as compared with requirements to move the coal to ports of export.
To move the 5,000,000 tons of the calculated surplus in the next five months to, say, the port of Danzig, 14-16,000 additional railway cars would be required. Sixteen hundred 20-ton cars will be received from Sweden. Locomotives are not in as short supply as cars. No cars are currently being received from Germany. The percentage of “sick” cars is about the same as before the war.
The combined daily handling capacity at the ports of Danzig and Gdynia is now about 4,000 tons as compared with 30,000 pre-war. By the middle of August it is expected that 16-17,000 tons can be handled daily. If more transport facilities were available additional harbors would be accessible. By the summer of 1946 it is expected that the total output of coal will rise to 5 million tons monthly and that there will be an export surplus of 2½-3 million tons.
5. Other Exports Available, over and above those committed under trade agreements
a. Zinc – In the area of old Poland in June 1945, there was a surplus available for export for [of?] 21,000 tons of zinc ore, 3,500 of zinc concentrates, and 4,300 tons of zinc. Some additional supplies are available from German Upper Silesia. For the 18-month period, August 1945 through December 1946, 40,000 tons of zinc will be available for export, almost entirely from the area of old Poland (that is, old Poland west of the Curzon line).
b. Cement – For the same 18-month period, there will be a surplus available for export of 350,000 tons.
c. For the same 18-month period, there will be surpluses available for export of 200 to 300 tons of cadmium, 7,000,000 tons of coke, a half million meters of glass, and 50,000 tons of soda. These figures refer to the area of old Poland west of the Curzon line. For the entire area currently administered by the Poles, there will be a potential export surplus of 160,000 tons of iron and steel.
6. Import Requirements, other than capital goods for reconstruction, and not including supplies to be obtained from UNRRA
$380,000,000 of imports will be required in the 18-month period, August 1945 through December 1946. Among the requirements are:
| Tons | |
|---|---|
| Rubber | 8,000 |
| Industrial belting | 60 |
| Tires and tubes | 5,500 |
| Wool | 20,000 |
| Wool Waste | 15,000 |
| Cotton | 60-70,000 |
| Scrap iron | 300,000 |
| Copper | 30,000 |
| Aluminum | 2,500 |
| Nickel | 1,000 |
| Petrol | 100,000 |
| Meat, including: canned | 100,000 |
| Fish, including canned | 50,000 |
| Butter | 20,000 |
| Lard | 20,000 |
| Bacon | 20.000 |
| Potassium salts, nitrates | 750,000 |
Machinery imports of $35,000,000 are required, including steam boilers, combustion engines, locomotives, turbines, pumps and compressors, wood working, metal working, molding machinery, pneumatic drills, textile and sewing machinery, milling machinery, road construction machinery, excavators and crushers.
Ships of all types, including barges and tugs but excluding ocean going types, will be required to the amount of $15,000,000.
Agricultural machinery also will be needed, including 5,000 tractors, to the amount of $10-15,000,000; and 1,000 autos and 10,000 trucks. All the above imports are additional to future imports, the purchases of which have already been arranged.
7. Credit Requirements
Of the total imports of $380,000,000 referred to above, about 50% can be paid for with expected exports. Thus $190,000,000 credits would be required to purchase the balance. It is desired that such credits be for a period of about five years.
The imports of $380,000,000 do not include imports of capital goods required for long-term reconstruction purposes. These requirements are estimated at $500,000,000 over a period of six to seven years. Long-term credits are desired to finance these imports.
The above credit requirements are additional to any aid received from reparations.
