Poll: 45 million votes forecast in presidential election
Five Eastern states, including Pennsylvania, indicated as holding the key to victory
By George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion
The 1944 presidential election campaign, which started slowly, has now shot into high gear. On the basis of latest figures from areas where registration has been completed, including New York City, it now appears that an estimated 45 million civilian voters will turn out to vote on Election Day.
This figure, of course, may be revised upward or downward when complete registration figures from other areas are available.
The armed services vote has been estimated at somewhere between two and a half million to three million. The indications thus are that the total vote to be cast in 1944 will be slightly under the nearly 50 million total of 1940.
A large turnout normally can be expected to help the Democrats but, despite this fact, the election on the basis of Institute public opinion sampling surveys looks to be almost a tossup.
While Institute surveys show President Roosevelt having a 51-49 percent advantage in the division of popular votes, poll returns now show sentiment so evenly divided in five large industrial states on the Eastern Seaboard – Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut – that a shift of but one or two percent could throw all of them to Governor Dewey.
Electoral vote cited
Should the Republican candidate take all of these five states which are now at or around the 50-50 line and retain those states where he is indicated to be leading, he would win the election with 287 electoral votes.
On the other hand, if Mr. Roosevelt should win these states, he could win handsomely in electoral votes even though the division of the popular vote is extremely close percentagewise. His total would be 341 electoral votes to Governor Dewey’s 190.
The reason for this of course is that a candidate who gets a majority – no matter how slim – in any state, gets the entire electoral vote of the state.
Because the election is likely to be won or lost in these five states the chief efforts of both parties will be concentrated there between now and Election Day.