Editorial: A mad-dog nation
…
Background of news –
12 states control election
By Bertram Benedict
The 12 most populous states in the union, one-fourth of the entire number, together have more than enough votes in the Electoral College to elect a President:
| New York | 47 |
| Pennsylvania | 35 |
| Illinois | 28 |
| California | 25 |
| Ohio | 25 |
| Texas | 23 |
| Michigan | 19 |
| Massachusetts | 16 |
| New Jersey | 16 |
| Missouri | 15 |
| North Carolina | 14 |
| Indiana | 13 |
| TOTAL | 276 |
| Necessary to elect | 266 |
The combined vote of these 12 states is 52 percent of the electoral vote, but the 12 have 58 percent of the population (1940 census). The discrepancy arises because the electoral system is a weighted against the larger states. The electoral vote of each state is equal to the number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress, and each state, small or large, has two Senators.
Thus in 1944, Nevada, with a population of only 110,247 in 1940, has three electoral votes. Colorado, with 10 times Nevada’s population (1,123,296), has six electoral votes, only twice as many.
All on same side only once
Although these 12 most populous states could by themselves decide a presidential election, it is highly improbable that they ever will. For one thing, two of them – North Carolina and Texas – are in the Deep South and vote Democratic even in Republican years, except when the Democratic nominee was Al Smith. Other Southern states always will go the same way as North Carolina and Texas.
In fact, since the turn of the century, these 12 most populous states were all in the same column in only one presidential election – that of 1936, when 46 of the 48 states voted for President Roosevelt, and some wag called it more of a census than an election. In 1916, Woodrow Wilson was reelected although he carried only five of these 12 states.
Missouri, North Carolina and Texas were on the losing side in the election of 1900, North Carolina and Texas in the elections of 1904, 1908, 1920 and 1924.
In 1912, when the third-party candidacy of Theodore Roosevelt resulted in a landslide for Woodrow Wilson, California (11 of its 13 votes), Michigan and Pennsylvania voted for Roosevelt.
In 1916, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania voted for Hughes.
In 1928, Massachusetts was for Smith. In 1932, Pennsylvania stuck by Hoover. In 1940, Indiana and Michigan were among the 10 states for Willkie.
Of the dozen states with the largest electoral votes, Ohio has gone the same way as the country as a whole in every presidential election since 1892, Missouri in every one since 1900.
10 sure Democratic states
In presidential elections, the Democratic Party has the advantage of being able to count upon all the 10 states in the Deep South (omitting Kentucky, Oklahoma and Tennessee). In 1944, these 10 have a total of 113 electoral votes, more than 40 percent of the number necessary to elect. In recent elections, the Republicans had no bloc of states on which they could similarly rely without fail. Now, however, political reports indicate that the GOP may be able to rely for some time to come upon a bloc of seven states in the Midwest – Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin with a total of 55 electoral votes.
Simms: Ship losses of Japs called catastrophic
Enemy soon must gamble everything
By William Philip Simms, Scripps-Howard foreign editor
…
Barnes: Enchanting musical delights Broadway
Bloomer Girl in great tradition of Oklahoma and Show Boat
By Howard Barnes
…
Millett: Letdown in morale worries servicemen
Marriage-on-rocks stories cause of consternation
By Ruth Millett
…
Fortune gives Roosevelt 53.2% vote in Pennsylvania
Magazine calls margin precarious, with Dewey given chance to carry state
New York – (special)
Pennsylvania shows a 53.2 percent majority for President Roosevelt as of Oct. 1, but the majority is not a firm one, the Fortune Survey of Public Opinion reports today.
This finding is based on a special survey conducted during the last week of September for Fortune in Pennsylvania by the firm of Elmo Roper. Fortune asked the following question:
With which of these statements do you come closest to agreeing?
| Roosevelt has done an excellent job and it’s very important that he should be President during the next four years | 27.5% |
| While he has made some mistakes and has been in office a long time, it’s still better to elect Roosevelt, President again for the next four years | 22.6% |
| TOTAL FOR ROOSEVELT | 50.1% |
| Although Roosevelt has done some good things, he has been President long enough and the country would be better off to elect Dewey for the next four years | 28.3% |
| It would be a very bad thing for this country to reelect Roosevelt for another four years | 15.8% |
| TOTAL FOR DEWEY | 44.1% |
| DON’T KNOW | 5.8% |
When those with no opinion are left out and those with opinions are taken as 100 percent, the resulting figures are 53.2 percent for Roosevelt, 46.8 percent for Dewey.
Other facts were learned, Fortune reports, which show that the Roosevelt majority in the state is precarious.
The anthracite area around Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, which gave Mr. Roosevelt a majority in 1940, is now leaning heavily toward Governor Dewey.
Roosevelt strength in the state is limited to the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas.
Questioning also reveals that Governor Dewey has made a good enough impression so that if all those who now are considering voting for him, but are still mildly pro-Roosevelt or undecided, should cast their vote for Dewey, then Dewey might carry the state by a bare majority of 51.1 percent, even if the war news does not change materially in the meanwhile.
Fortune says:
But the war in Europe is still the key factor in the election in Pennsylvania as in the rest of the nation. If, before Election Day, it looks as if Germany actually were collapsing, a great many lukewarm Roosevelt supporters may shift over to the Republican side.
Roosevelt election reported in doubt
New York (UP) –
Newsweek Magazine reported today that its survey of election trends this week for the first time showed the reelection of President Roosevelt to be in doubt and indicated the vote in four states may decide the presidential race.
The survey, conducted among 118 political observers over the country, gave Mr. Roosevelt 25 states with an electoral vote of 230. Governor Thomas E. Dewey, Republican presidential candidate, was predicted to carry 19 states having 232 electoral votes.
The four deciding states, the survey indicated, will be Minnesota, Missouri, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, with a total of 69 electoral votes – all rated as “tossups.”
Völkischer Beobachter (October 20, 1944)
Zur Feindoffensive in Italien –
Die Kunst des hinhaltenden Widerstandes
…
Feindlandung auf den Philippinen
Tokio, 19. Oktober –
Wie die japanische Nachrichtenagentur Dōmei in einer Sondermeldung aus Manila bekanntgibt, haben feindliche Streitkräfte in den Morgenstunden des Dienstags im Gebiet der Zentralphilippinnen Landungsoperationen unternommen.
Führer HQ (October 20, 1944)
Kommuniqué des Oberkommandos der Wehrmacht
In Holland wiesen unsere Truppen in dem verengten Brückenkopf Breskens sowie an der Landbrücke nach Südbeveland kanadische Angriffe blutig ab. Zusammengefasstes Feuer aller Waffen, hartnäckiger Widerstand und entschlossene Gegenangriffe vereitelten östlich Helmond den Versuch der Engländer, unseren Brückenkopf westlich der Maas einzudrücken. Eine Anzahl feindlicher Panzer wurde dabei vernichtet.
Die Materialschlacht um Aachen lobt weiter. Die tapfere Besatzung der Stadt fügte in erbitterten Straßenkämpfen den eingedrungenen Amerikanern schwere Verluste zu. Gegenangriffe vom Osten her brachten den Verteidigern Entlastung.
An den Taihängen im Raum von Bruyères brachen angreifende feindliche Bataillone in unserem Feuer zusammen oder wurden in Gegenangriffen geworfen. Auch im Quellgebiet der Moselotte scheiterten erneute Angriffe algerischer Schützen- und marokkanischer Gebirgstruppen nach geringem Geländegewinn. Eine am Vortag abgeschnittene feindliche Kräftegruppe wurde aufgerieben.
Von den Stützpunkten an der atlantischen Küste werden außer Artilleriefeuer und Stoßtrupptätigkeit keine besonderen Ereignisse gemeldet.
Das Störungsfeuer der „V1“ auf London dauert an.
In Mittelitalien vereitelten unsere Truppen auch gestern alle Versuche der Nordamerikaner und ihrer Hilfstruppen, unsere Bergstellungen südlich Bologna zu durchstoßen und damit den Austritt aus dem Gebirge zu erzwingen. Die Kämpfe dehnten sich auch auf den Abschnitt von Vergato aus. An der adriatischen Küste setzten die Briten ihre von zahlreichen Schlachtfliegern unterstützten Angriffe auf breiter Front erfolglos fort.
Auf dem Balkan stehen unsere Truppen in und südlich Belgrad in schweren Kämpfen gegen die von mehreren Seiten andringenden Bolschewisten.
In Südungarn Warfen deutsche Truppen zusammen mit ungarischen Verbänden den Gegner südöstlich Szolnok zurück und stießen bis Mezötúr vor. Im Raum von Debrecen brachte auch der gestrige Tag schwere Kämpfe. Die Stadt wurde nach hartnäckiger Gegenwehr unserer Truppen aufgegeben. Im bisherigen Verlauf der Schlacht wurden dort seit dem 8. Oktober 427 feindliche Panzer vernichtet.
In den Waldkarpaten herrschte gestern bei Schnee und Regen geringe Kampftätigkeit. Nur im Gebiet des Duklapasses führte der Gegner zahlreiche ergebnislose Angriffe.
Nördlich Warschau und in den Narewbrückenköpfen bei Seroc und Rozan nahmen die Bolschewisten ihre Angriffe wieder auf. Sie wurden unter Abschuß von 33 Panzern abgewiesen. Im ostpreußischen Grenzgebiet zwischen Sudauen und Schirwindt und besonders zwischen der Rominter Heide und Ebenrode halten die schweren Kämpfe an. Im Bereich einer Volksgrenadierdivision wurden 42 Panzer abgeschossen.
Südöstlich Libau und südlich der Rigaer Bucht wiesen Truppen des Heeres sowie Verbände germanischer und lettischer SS-Freiwilliger wiederholt feindliche Angriffe ab und vernichteten 29 Panzer.
An der Eismeerstraße angreifende sowjetische Bataillone wurden zerschlagen. Der feindliche Druck gegen unsere Stellungen westlich Petsamo hat sich verstärkt.
Nordamerikanische Terrorverbände griffen am Tage südwestdeutsches Gebiet an und warfen Bomben vor allem auf die Städte Mainz, Mannheim, Ludwigshafen, Karlsruhe und Wiesbaden. In der vergangenen Nacht führten die Briten Terrorangriffe gegen Stuttgart und Nürnberg. Flakartillerie der Luftwaffe und Nachtjäger schossen 27 anglo-amerikanische Flugzeuge, darunter 16 viermotorige Bomber, ab.
Am Czirokatalpaß hat sich das Füsilierbataillon 168 unter Führung von Oberleutnant Horn hervorragend geschlagen.
Supreme HQ Allied Expeditionary Force (October 20, 1944)
FROM
(A) SHAEF FORWARD
ORIGINATOR
PRD, Communique Section
DATE-TIME OF ORIGIN
201100A October
TO FOR ACTION
(1) AGWAR (Pass to WND)
TO (W) FOR INFORMATION (INFO)
(2) FIRST US ARMY GP
(3) ADV HQ 12 ARMY GP
(4) FWD ECH (MAIN) 12 ARMY GP
(5) AEAF
(6) ANCXF
(7) EXFOR MAIN
(8) EXFOR REAR
(9) DEFENSOR, OTTAWA
(10) CANADIAN C/S, OTTAWA
(11) WAR OFFICE
(12) ADMIRALTY
(13) AIR MINISTRY
(14) ETOUSA
(15) SACSEA
(16) CMHQ (Pass to RCAF & RCN)
(17) COM Z APO 871
(18) SHAEF MAIN
(REF NO.)
NONE
(CLASSIFICATION)
IN THE CLEAR
Communiqué No. 195
Good progress was made south of Breskens and our troops are now within two miles of Schoondijke and Oostburg. Other units, advancing from the original bridgehead over the Sint-Leenarts Canal, took the villages of Middelburg and Aardenburg. Patrols from the two forces made contact in the area south of Oostburg. Fighter-bombers and rocket-firing fighters, supporting our operations in the Breskens sector attacked communications and strongpoints and hit supply dumps at Fort Frederik Hendrik. In the area south of Venray, some progress was made against determined resistance west and southwest of Overbroek.
Our units made gains in the fighting inside Aachen. We continued to mop-up the area north of the city. The enemy reoccupied several pillboxes in the Haaren area, but was later driven out. A fairly strong counterattack with tanks and infantry north of Haaren was broken up by our artillery during the afternoon. In the Moselle River Valley, fighting continues in Maizières-lès-Metz. East of Luné, a concentration of enemy tanks was attacked by fighter-bombers. Other formations, striking across the German frontier to the east, went for rail targets at Kaiserslautern. In the Épinal sector, we made gains near Bruyères and occupied the high ground just north of the town.
Further progress was made in the Vosges foothills. Six enemy counterattacks were thrown back northeast of Le Thillot and more prisoners were taken. Heavy bombers in very great strength, with strong fighter escort, attacked in daylight military targets at Mainz and in the Ludwigshafen–Manheim area in southwestern Germany. Last night, heavy bombers, again in very great strength, struck at Stuttgart and Nürnberg. A lighter attack was made on Wiesbaden in the Rhineland. Nine of our aircraft are missing.
COORDINATED WITH: G-2, G-3 to C/S
THIS MESSAGE MAY BE SENT IN CLEAR BY ANY MEANS
/s/
Precedence
“OP” - AGWAR
“P” - Others
ORIGINATING DIVISION
PRD, Communique Section
NAME AND RANK TYPED. TEL. NO.
D. R. JORDAN, Lt Col FA Ext. 9
AUTHENTICATING SIGNATURE
/s/