Election 1944: Fortune and Newsweek polls (10-19-44)

The Pittsburgh Press (October 19, 1944)


Fortune gives Roosevelt 53.2% vote in Pennsylvania

Magazine calls margin precarious, with Dewey given chance to carry state

New York – (special)
Pennsylvania shows a 53.2 percent majority for President Roosevelt as of Oct. 1, but the majority is not a firm one, the Fortune Survey of Public Opinion reports today.

This finding is based on a special survey conducted during the last week of September for Fortune in Pennsylvania by the firm of Elmo Roper. Fortune asked the following question:

With which of these statements do you come closest to agreeing?

Roosevelt has done an excellent job and it’s very important that he should be President during the next four years 27.5%
While he has made some mistakes and has been in office a long time, it’s still better to elect Roosevelt, President again for the next four years 22.6%
Although Roosevelt has done some good things, he has been President long enough and the country would be better off to elect Dewey for the next four years 28.3%
It would be a very bad thing for this country to reelect Roosevelt for another four years 15.8%

When those with no opinion are left out and those with opinions are taken as 100 percent, the resulting figures are 53.2 percent for Roosevelt, 46.8 percent for Dewey.

Other facts were learned, Fortune reports, which show that the Roosevelt majority in the state is precarious.

The anthracite area around Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, which gave Mr. Roosevelt a majority in 1940, is now leaning heavily toward Governor Dewey.

Roosevelt strength in the state is limited to the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas.

Questioning also reveals that Governor Dewey has made a good enough impression so that if all those who now are considering voting for him, but are still mildly pro-Roosevelt or undecided, should cast their vote for Dewey, then Dewey might carry the state by a bare majority of 51.1 percent, even if the war news does not change materially in the meanwhile.

Fortune says:

But the war in Europe is still the key factor in the election in Pennsylvania as in the rest of the nation. If, before Election Day, it looks as if Germany actually were collapsing, a great many lukewarm Roosevelt supporters may shift over to the Republican side.

Roosevelt election reported in doubt

New York (UP) –
Newsweek Magazine reported today that its survey of election trends this week for the first time showed the reelection of President Roosevelt to be in doubt and indicated the vote in four states may decide the presidential race.

The survey, conducted among 118 political observers over the country, gave Mr. Roosevelt 25 states with an electoral vote of 230. Governor Thomas E. Dewey, Republican presidential candidate, was predicted to carry 19 states having 232 electoral votes.

The four deciding states, the survey indicated, will be Minnesota, Missouri, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, with a total of 69 electoral votes – all rated as “tossups.”