Simms: ‘Big Four’ session may be held soon
By William Philip Simms, Scripps-Howard foreign editor
Québec, Canada –
Unless President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Churchill have inside information covering Marshal Stalin’s plans after Hitler’s fall, it seems almost certain that their meeting here will be followed by another – a Big Four conference.
I understand that the present conference is already nearing its end.
If that is the case, it not only indicates swift and excellent progress is being made, but that it is largely exploratory, rather than decisive.
Russia’s policy needed
The impression is growing here that without some definite word from Russia, regarding her policy in Asia after the collapse of Germany, no definite, overall blueprint for the Pacific and Far East can be completed.
From an authoritative source, I have the latest figures showing the disposition of Jap strength in the Oriental theater of operations. According to these, Japan now has 113 divisions of 20,000 men each, about twice the usual strength. This would make a total of 2,260,000 men.
Twenty-two divisions are in the Southwest Pacific; 15 are in Thailand-Burma; 37½ are in China; 21½ in Manchuria and 17 in Japan proper.
Japs concentrate forces
The main Jap fleet, composed of 10 battleships and subsidiaries, seems to be based on the Jap east coast, Yokohama, Formosa and the Philippines. Thirteen divisions make up the air force which, since the Americans took Saipan last July, appears to have been pulled in toward the Philippines and Formosa.
From these figures, two things stick out, first, Japan seems to be concentrating her forces nearer home on land, sea and in the air. Second, it will be a difficult job to close in on Japan proper until we obtain a good foothold on the Asiatic mainland, with an adequate harbor through which to pour in reserves and supplies.
Manchuria supplies troops
But some 59 divisions, or more than half the entire Jap Army, appear to be concentrated in China and Manchuria. These units are almost self-contained, thanks to Japan’s war industries in Manchuria. To get at, and destroy, these divisions will be no easy matter.
Traditionally, Japan has counted on tiring America out, in case of war, by barricading herself, if necessary, and forcing us to come and get her. As for Europe, Russia is the only country she ever has feared, because only Russia could get at her by land.
Everything, therefore, indicates the importance of Russia living up to the spirit of the commitments she and the Allies are now supposed to be making at Dumbarton Oaks, in Washington.
Meanwhile, pending the Allied victory over the Reich and the clarification of Soviet policy in the Far East, it is difficult to see how the decisions at Québec can be more than tentative.