The Pittsburgh Press (November 4, 1946)
WIDE GOP GAINS FORECAST
Democrats on defensive in campaign
Democrats on defensive in campaign
By Lyle C. Wilson, United Press staff writer
NEW YORK (UP) – Republican House and Senate gains seemed inevitable today as the general election campaign for control of the 80th Congress ended in a splatter of oratory. The election takes place tomorrow.
For the first time since 1928 the Democratic Party has campaigned without the spectacular leadership of Franklin D. Roosevelt. His successor, President Truman, ducked the campaign altogether administration and Democratic candidates generally have been on the defensive.
Commodity and food shortages gave the Republicans a blistering issue which was aggravated by a scarcity of meat. Midway m the campaign Mr. Truman was compelled to abandon his hold-the-line price control program and the lid is off on most items. A Cabinet crisis over foreign policy compelled the President to fire Henry A. Wallace, his secretary of commerce, who was the administration’s most effective ink with the left-wing of the New Deal-Democratic coalition.
Claims conflict
Although congressional losses are inevitable, Democratic spokesmen claim they will hold the Republicans short of control of either house of Congress. Republicans insist their gains will be sufficient to take the House of Representatives by a comfortable margin and, perhaps, to win the Senate.
Polls and surveys suggest that the House will go Republican this time and that the Senate will be close either way. If so, this general election will end 16 lean political years for the Republican Party. The GOP lost the House after the 1930 election and lost the Senate and the White House in 1932.
Democratic campaigners warned voters that loss of the House or Senate would paralyze government. But few, if any, of them believe the administration can maintain its present congressional membership intact. The disputed question is how many seats the GOP will gain. Except for the extraordinary first term – majority parties uniformly have lost congressional seats in off-year elections although not necessarily losing control of either house.
Present lineup
The political division of the present 79th Congress which will expire January 3, 1947, is as follows:
SENATE: Democrats 56, Republicans 39, Progressive 1.
HOUSE: Democrats 236, Republicans 192, Progressive 1, American Labor 1, vacant 5.
To obtain a bare majority of 49 Senate seats, the Republicans must make a net gain of 10. To win a bare majority of 218 in the House, the GOP must gain 26.
Maine held its 1946 election last September, returning three Republicans to the House and electing a Republican governor and Republican senator. There remain 432 House seats to be voted on tomorrow. The 35 Senate seats to be won or lost tomorrow are presently held by 24 Democrats, 10 Republicans and one Progressive. There is no Progressive candidate in this election, Robert M. LaFollette (Progressive-Wisconsin), having been defeated this year when he sought renomination as a Republican.
33 to pick governors
Thirty-three governors will be elected tomorrow, the offices now being divided among 16 Democrats and 17 Republicans. The gubernatorial division among the 48 states is: Democrats 25, Republicans 23. There are in addition thousands of lesser state and local offices to be filled.
Tomorrow’s election properly will be regarded as a political barometer for 1948 when the White House as well as Congress will be at stake. It is traditional that a majority party which loses the House in a midterm election loses the White House two years later. The House went Democratic in 1910 during a Republican administration and Woodrow Wilson, a Democrat, was elected president two years later.
The White House was returned to Republican control in 1920 – two years after the House of Representatives had been regained by the GOP. In 1930, the political tide was beginning to turn as depression deepened. In that midterm election, the Republicans retained control of the House, winning 220 seats. The Democrats won 214 and there was one Farmer-Labor member. But by the time Congress met in 1931 there had been several deaths among Republican representatives-elect and the Democrats were able to organize the House, electing John Nance Garner as speaker.
In control since 1932
In 1932 came the first Roosevelt landslide. The Democrats have been in control of Congress and the White House ever since.
There are other touches of presidential politics in tomorrow’s voting. The two men who headed the Republican ticket in 1944 again are seeking office. John W. Bricker, the 1944 vice-presidential nominee, is a shoo-in candidate for the Senate from Ohio. Gov. Thomas E. Dewey, the GOP presidential nominee two years ago, apparently is heading for a big personal political triumph tomorrow. Mr. Dewey is seeing re-election as governor of New York.
There is a Republican tradition that defeated presidential candidates are never renominated. The New York State Republican organization is out to put Mr. Dewey over tomorrow by a majority so large as to startle the country. The idea is that a smashing Dewey victory in New York State would do more than a little toward getting him renominated for president in 1948.
Another 1948 presidential possibility is Gov. Earl Warren of California. Mr. Warren caught the eye of Republicans all over the country this year by winning both the Democratic and Republican nominations for governor. He has no opposition. Former Gov. Harold E. Stassen of Minnesota is not a candidate for office nor is Sen. Robert A. Taft, (R-Ohio), whose Senate term has not expired. Both figure in the 1948 Republican presidential picture.