Most people can see and understand the problems caused by overpopulation- pollution, famine, disease, global warming… yet everyone wants to live, love, and breed. A cure for a disease is considered a “good thing”, and making peace? Well, they even have a prize for it. My question: has anyone ever done the math? Projecting the growth of the population, if things like the American Civil War, World War I, World War II, the Spanish flu, the genocides in Russia, Cambodia, Africa, and everywhere else never happened, and all of those people who died went on to breed, based on the average family sizes over the last few hundred years, what would the population be today? A trillion? I’d like someone to do the math. I’d like an actual number that I can use to win arguments. 
Please and thank you!
You can always do the math yourself if all you’re interested in is winning arguments.
That was a joke. Sorry if that wasn’t as obvious as I thought it was.
No, I’m genuinely interested, and I think others would be, too. Also, if I had the time and ability to to the math myself, I probably would have long ago. I just thought, with all of the information and resources available to the Time Ghost Army, and all of the brainy sorts that get into this sort of thing, that someone would not only be able to make that calculation, but would enjoy it.
It would be interesting but totally subjective, without those deaths it could be argued indeed the population would be much higher, but as in all alternate history scenarios it couldn’t possibly predict any other factors, disease, different wars, active one child measures like China had (still has?), etc. Maybe’s unfortunately are mired with the complications of all what if type scenarios, they end all the same, whoever creating can’t possibly know unfortunately. Thanks
OK, yes. I realize that any number of other factors might occur between then and now to affect overall numbers. I agree, trying to anticipate everything like that and factor it in is not possible.
What I specifically want to try to calculate (or have someone calculate), is the exponential population growth, without the possible deaths from all those other factors, as though we live in a magical world of rainbows and butterflies. That should be entirely possible. Is anyone willing to play along?
These kinds of calculations are almost impossible to do, since there are so much things that could happen. And I don’t mean wars and diseased, since you put them out of this equation. But social changes and such. Birthrates in 1800s and 2000s in Europe are quite different and don’t forget China’s one child policy that was enforced. Also advancements in medicine alters deathrates. Antibiotics, Quinine and vaccines changed a lot how our societies work. It is also true that higher education decreases birthrates. The farther in the past we dwell, the more difficult everything becomes when we talk about alternate history.
I tried many times to put here some numbers and alternate ways to calculate population growth but never did it felt right. And no, I will not calculate it for you. I’m not interested in static world, since for me alternate history is more vibrant world of “what if’s”.
Pick a year and its population. Add X children (new generation) for each new generation every 20 years (old ones don’t get anymore, their cap for children is maxed out). Don’t account anything that happens in the world otherwise (wars, diseases, deaths). It gets complicated when you try to figure out deathrates, but something like subtract the oldest generation every 60 years.
There is a theoretical way we can calculate the population impact of the Holocaust:
- Take the total number of victims and add the number of women aged 20-45 (for example).
- Assign the same amount of male victims of ages 20-55 (age gap can be slightly higher for men).
- If every man and woman equal 1 family, compare that to the average family size of the time and add in the appropriate amount of children.
- Multiply the amount of grandchildren based on the relevant data for the era in which they would have become adults.
But like was said already, this is all just theoretics based on simple math, and those things can change on a yearly basis.
Try alternate history forums. They probably will be willing to take up that challenge. Thanks