When I read about Spain’s neutrality, often the idea seems to be that Franco stayed neutral because he was not convinced Germany would win. But perhaps there was another reason to stay neutral, namely the history of Spain during the Napoleonic wars, where allowing their ‘ally’ France to move forces in to Spain brought disaster for Spain.
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The Spanish Civil War had convulsed the country until 1939, the new Falangist regime was still in the early stages of stabilizing their control, and there were still large areas of the country where trouble could potentially break out again. Inviting large contingents of German troops in would have been a very risky thing for Franco to do. And, as you point out, Spain had experiences with large numbers of foreign troops on their soil.
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