Thank you. It is difficult to find unbiased information on European affairs when you are limited to English. My bad to preferring computer language over foreign languages.
2 Likes
Actually the forum is entirely in English, people simply post articles in other languages and translate them. If you have the time Iâd highly recommend registering for the Paradox Interactive Forums (OT Section). We are on page 791 discussing the war.
Poor Lukashenko became a meme thanks to his decision to post a video of him talking Ukraine and accidentally using a battle map that showed the Russian offensive plans. Before they stalled that is.
2 Likes
Clausewitz War is the continuation of Diplomacy (Politics)
Most would need a German translation if one doesnât speak it but this interview has a logical ground. Like the Indian/Pakistan separation a partition of the Ukraine might be the goal.
Ukraine Special 5: Clausewitz und eine âindische Lösungâ fĂŒr den Ukraine-Krieg? - YouTube
On top of this interview, our information is heavily based on Ukranian sources and some Military people I know argue that the Russians might be stronger than we assume. They go forward more carefully because of the Javelins and the low height Stinger threat. A Military not unlogical strategy is to keep the cities surrounded and damage as much as possible with long range artillery and high flying bomber. (Yes I condem Putin totally but this is a fact). The Ukranians do get limited support in order not to excalate further)
2 Likes
I totally agree here that we are judging capabilities of Russian troops based on performance of America in the Middle East. Totally unfair in that America had so many advantages in technology that Russia doesnât have.
If we had to face the highest tech defensive weapons available it would require us to think things a bit differently.
I do think Russian air tactics leave a lot to be desired in that their anti air suppression seems quite limited. Whole other topic though.
I would say though that we give Ukraine just enough help to make the war a living hell for both sides. We do not give them help to possibly win it. More help might shorten the war by giving Russia incentive to really negotiate. When this ends I think NATO looking back will have to accept a larger share of the blame for not trying more to deter the war.
And none of that excuses what Russia is doing of course.
2 Likes
Dr. Raths is a historian, so he has not read âClausewitz for yoga teachersâ or âClausewitz for horse breedersâ
To explain the âindian solutionâ: Ending the fighting by partition of Ukraine. Which he does not suggest, but this is a way, when war was a means of politics, to find a way to end a war.
1 Like
That is also what happened in eg Syria as on of these forever wars with ginormous refugee streams. Just give the âgood â resistance enough to continue. That was when Biden was VP. I Can go on with other devastating wars but the most relevant for us is that the war in the Ukraine was already there in 2014, at that point people were talking and promising uparming.
This video includes the Ukraine crises of 2014 and the realisation we could not defend the Baltics. Von der Leyen was the one in charge then. Unfortunately no one has learned. Schröder could go on with his Nordstream project locking in Russo- German dependency while antagonising Poland AND the Ukraine 
.
In 2022 not much has changed after 8 years the same politicians are still âsurprised â that Putin does the same as in 2014 (and Syria and Georgia). Frankly I wouldnât surprised if the âunityâ with the NATO allies goes away after this crises has e.g. resulted in a Ukraine portion or any other. This might sound cynical 
but it is realistic that politicians who keep making the same actions will do it again.
3 Likes
And now there is the estimate (German foreign minister) of 8 million refugees. And have you heard of any central planning whow to deal with them?
Maybe Ukrainian Refugees will be more palatable than Syrian refugees? Less of a culture shock at least.
Iâm fussing the UN refugee commission will step in. Will it be effective? Who knows. Probably depends on how long the war goes on.
Yes Putin has been a bad guy, brutal thug and war criminal for a very long time. And the US has been bankrolling regimes to do their bidding for longer. I agree Syria was a god awful mess but Libya has been turned into a hell. Afghanistan has been destroyed and the Middle East as a whole is a simmering bunch of small fights threatening to explode. Saudi Arabia just said they will not be responsible for high oil prices as they are under attack.
The United States is the best in the world at blowing things up and killing people in a surgical way. Iâm not sure I can think of any situation where we have actually improved things by doing so. The entire war on Terror should have ended in 6 months but it was just too profitable. The saying was fight them over there so we donât have to fight them in the US.
The lesson seems to be Use military force sparingly and in an absolutely brutal and final way when you have to. Russia got the brutal part right but they failed totally at the final victory part. If the war had ended in a week the brutality would already be fading.
Your question about NATO and trust is very interesting. Now that Russiaâs military will need a decade to recover maybe some countries will reconsider. They might find an alternate path going forward. That will probably be messier too. I am very pessimistic that the world is going through the great reset and praying it doesnât become a great bloodletting.
2 Likes
I hope the UN will not be involved.
1 Like
That is a very optimistic evaluation.
1 Like
This is not a joke about Germans, it is realsatire, (sorry = and no russian or ukrainian translation avaiable, but its an information for Ukrainan refugees = false) it is a information for Germans about the laws involved:
It is by no means an educated estimate. I think they have wrecked the offensive capabilities of their army. I still wouldnât invade Russia for sure.
How long to recover? They need money they donât have training they donât get and probably a long effort to create an esprit de corps which is not present now. I wish them well and hope they remake their army in a better world with leadership that the soldiers deserve.
I am in favor of a strong free Russia just not a thug Russia.
I donât disagree with you. The UN is not a good solution but who else is there? Iâm tempted to say itâs a Europe problem and should have a Europe solution. Not to sound crass but who else can solve it?
So far the US has voted for vast sums of cash but I feel itâs going about 1/2 for weapons and 1/2 for refugees. Iâm a US citizen but I donât trust my governments motives here because they canât seem to come out and speak plainly as to what they want so I wouldnât think we would be the ones to address the refugee situation either.
I would say if you are Ukrainian and can get to Mexico you will find a home in the US.
So I am, but we have to deal with a Russia that has a fashist system (not nazi). Germans and Russians shared the common knollege of the in the west called âthe forgotten warâ and anti war songs from Russia. One of them is: " Do you believe the russians want war?". It is ony a comedian singing, but the anti war song may sound different today.
1 Like
I got the lyrics for this in English. It really is a universal sentiment . Thank you
1 Like
Same here the Russian are great people to work with and just like people everywhere else. As for military capabilities I am not sure that they are finished as Ukrainian data and Western media implies. Russia escalated with a hypersonic missile from Kalinagrad North of Poland 
basically warning us they can hit everywhere. Also military analysts told me that because of the short range Stingers and Javelins (anti-tank) the use drones now to target with their arty as well as missiles and suicide drones. Also they still have the Russian Marines and many other fresh units at hand. Also they are quite Frank that for the Ukraine the situation is dire but stating that on the media will endanger the influx of volunteers an Will to help militarily. From a purely immoral Military perspective blasting targets with long range artillery and bombing industry and surrounding cities with horrible consequences might bring a negotiated deal closer.
So before we declare victory 
like the complacent Axis in Stalingrad (to make an arguable allusion to our timeline) donât assume the information we have is the full truth. And also donât underestimate the Russians capability to come back or rely completely on the preselected media pictures.
Hope this doesnât escalate into nuclear 
!
2 Likes
As you descreibe it, itâs not a military perspective, but a political decision to try to destroy the civilian moral by bombing civilians and destory infrastructure and to create a humanitarian crises. It has been tried over London, Hamburg and Tokyo. But the effects in the past have been, that it make people stick together. But normal people across Europe are sickened by this approach, and that are creating the willingness to punish Russia by any means, sports, culture, blocade of ships, increased military spending etc, and it dosent matter if the gas price will increase. enough is enough.
2 Likes
Even if Russia is able to conquer the complete nation of Ukraine by force then they will have to deal with the resistance of the population , they will keep losing soldiers and Ukraine will be the new Syria or Afghanistan .
It will be hell for the civilians of Ukraine as Russia has shown that they will not have any problem with murdering all those who will not follow Putin.
5 Likes
Great point and for comparison the Ukraine is not small but a whopping 169% of Germany in size including the annexed part earlier. However like in Syria they are creating a refugee crises. Maybe precisely to avoid resistance fighters?
2 Likes