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I donāt know the exact situation and I donāt trust McGregor who keeps using the same number forever 400K dead. But also the Fact Checking had its problems and was partisan. Trying to fact check both sides
For on he accused McGregor of playing the āStraw manā argument as he stated that no one said Ukraine was winning. Maybe true but there was a lot of hype before the offensive and e.g. Joe Biden said that Russia already had lost the war.
As for F-16s the "fact checker " a great presentation on why the F-16 is still relevant when they come online next year. OK McGregor said they are old and these are Dutch write-offs so there is something to say for that. I agree with sending the F-16s to Ukraine BUT hope they can get all the updates. There are a lot of details flying around and the āFact Checkerā mentions the Harm and Ritter then points out that the range of the Harm is insufficient.
In my view it are just 2 people who have an opinion and let details fly in the ether. This war is incredibly complex and while these details get copied by laypeople like us these in no way create a decent picture.
Oh and in an interview it is easier to misspeak an acronym than when making a slick video online. So I donāt really like to jump on the bandwagon. The only thing that seems obvious that after 550 days of war in such a large area the casualties must be massive. Dead/wounded/traumatized and not to mention the large number of extra health problems because of the unaffordable food prices.
So I donāt trust these people although I see they have a separate belief systems which drives them to partisan.
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Major General Bakshi has a pretty interesting view. In short the Ukranian offensive has failed to crush the āBattle of Kurskā inspired defenses. BUT the Ukrainians are keeping reserves in place to stave of the Russian counterattack. But this might go on in next years
Not what I want to hear but neverthelessā¦
As for casualties, Willy OAM does not trust the figures BUT the casualties must be huge as:
1 Russia keeps looking for new recruits in the poorer parts of the Country
2 Ukraine wants to mobilize students who were exempt And really lowers the standards for forced conscription by scrapping a lot of medical exemptions. He uses Ukranian sources (well you are welcome to prove me wrong).
Also fired Ukrainian Defense Minister, was that for corruption which had been going on for ages or maybe they need a scapegoat for the āfailed offensiveā.
The mysterie and mass slaughter will continue
Chew
Oh well make up your own mih
But Russia loosing the war does not make this war a winn to the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian people are the loosers in this war. But they do not have an alternative to victory.
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I watched both of these videos. Wily I tend to think gives a fairly balanced view while the mustache gave a fairly pro Russian view.
I think both sides have been hard pressed. The Ukrainian offensive has used several different tactics but have shown the hard cost of advancing into mines and artillery without having other options. It reached the 1st major defensive line but I donāt know how much farther they will go. On the other hand the Russian drive on Kupyansk seems to have made equally little headway. This looks like a stalemate. I donāt see Russia about to have a knockout blow nor do I see Ukraine reaching even Tokmok this year and that was only the first major goal.
I donāt know what the casualties are. Too high for sure. I see no evidence of the 400k Ukrainian dead but 100k would not surprise me. But I just donāt know.
Both sides economies are in deep shit. Europe is in recession and God knows I expect the US may follow. Itās closer to gut check time for everyone and winter will be tough.
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While by no means comprehensive it does show what Russians claim to have killed or wounded and why those figures are way out to lunch
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Created a separate post from the above. Everybody is making noise about how slow the Ukrainian advance is and a lot has to do with mine fields as the Russians created a nightmare scenario for deminers.
There are tons of videos and articles on this subject but in one field that was approximately 30 hectares that Ukrainians recently liberated 5 teams of deminers spent three weeks clearing the field and pulled up 27,906 anti-tank mines of which about 30% were boobytrapped and 5612 anti-personnel mines.
This is the primary reason the offensive is going so slow as it is estimated that just in the Robotyne sector there are well over one million mines that the Russians planted. It will be a long slow process and the irony is the deminers are reusing any mine that is still good against the Russians.
Tit for tat
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I am satisfied with Ukrainian progress. I check the maps every day. Even with air supremacy this woUld not be easy. If they can breach this line they will advance a few fields and hit another line. They seem to be using combat teams rather than brigade size maneuvers.
They are doing all they can but in a few weeks rain then snow will slow any advance. I canāt conceive of crossing minefields covered by snow.
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In donāt know. I can see that people might see him as āPro Russianā but maybe in his mind his view is not pro-Russian but just stating how he sees it and putting his reputation on the line. Bakshi also commended the Ukranians for keeping their reserves out of the frontline to save them to stop the counterattack. Also Bakshi doesnāt have predictions for last year.
As for casualties, I am not sure how to see evidence for a 100.000 or even 400.000 KIA (or just casualties) or whatever if thermobaric bombs obliterate everything. In his first video just before the war Willy warned about massive casualties. I doubt if we will ever know the real numbers. Numbers are used as propaganda value, after Bakhmut the Russian casualties were set to a round 100.000 without any mentioning of Ukrainian casualties. Sounds fishy to me well any source is fishy. And for me it is tempting to think from a āpegged numberā from propaganda but if I donāt know the numbers there is and infinite range to choose from. In 550 days a lot of people can become a casualty.
Also the youtubers tends to show videos that are provided by Russia and the Ukraine, they donāt make these videos themselves just relay what they get and add comments. In Desert Storm we called this embedded journalist (same principle)
I would LIKE the UKRAINE to drive the Russian back but
1 I still do see a risk that if Russia will lose, tactical nukes are still on the table and these are the only real game changers. RAND also warned for them. So that could be an option.
2 Another option which to me makes sense:Biden/Democrats need a victory before the 2024 election. They can declare victory after an Afghanistan style disappearing act. With NO US casualties and it blaming the Ukranians for not doing their job. Yes this is horrible behaviour but is that beneath the politicians?
Lots of NATO/UN forces died in places like Afghanistan, Iraq and Mali. Among others these missions have been abandoned. This can happen to Ukraine as well. At that point Nato countries still have their article 5 and Nuclear Umbrella to protect them. The US can get out of Dodge easily and did, Ukraine canāt.
AND STATING AGAIN.
This is what might happen as which is something else then wanting it to happen!
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One of the burning questions about the Ukrainian war is how many dead, wounded, missing and POWs there are on both sides.
Estimates from the US, GB, NATO and the belligerents cannot agree on the dead, wounded and missing.
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Estimates for Ukrainian military deaths range from 18,000(Ukrainian estimates) to 295,000(Russian estimates) in the middle are US military estimates at 70,000 to British estimates at 50,000 dead.
For Ukrainian wounded the estimates are more centralized but Ukrainian estimates are low (71,000)and Russian estimates are high(605,000) most NATO countries peg the wounded at 100,000 to 150,000.
For Ukrainian POWs itās estimated by the Americans and British to be between 6,000-8,000. Ukraine says 4,100 of its soldiers are POWs. As of August 2023 just over 2,400 Ukrainian military POWs and 132 civilians had been released.
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Russian dead again run the gamut with Russia admitting to just over 18,000 to Ukraine saying there are 270,000 dead Russians. American estimates put the Russian dead at 120-140,000 and the British estimates at 90-100,000 Russian dead.
For Russian wounded the estimate 800,000 by Ukraine while Russia admits to 27,000 wounded. NATO is more centralized in the figures with 250,000 to 350,000 wounded.
As to Russian POWs itās estimated that some 9,000-11,000 are POWs. Russia has stated only 500 Russians are POWs however as of August 2023 903 Russian POWs had been released in Prisoner exchanges
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PMC Wagner totals are separate from Russian totals
PMC Wagner put their losses at 22,000 and just over 40,000 wounded
Admitted to at least 210 Wagners are POWs
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As you can see the numbers are all over the board and there will likely never be a completely accurate picture of the dead and wounded.
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Germany is the host of the Invictus Games in English:
Latest information about the improvent in the defence of the Balitic:
Major General Bakschi has an interesting analyses which credits the Ukranians And Russians and explains the completely new Battlespace situation which is unlike earlier wars.
Any thoughts welcome. I assume he does present what he thinks it is true he puts stuff into context. India has a long history of fighting wars and even in the 18th Century the Tippoo Sultan already used rockets.
(2) Did Ukraineās Counteroffensive against Russia fail? | GD Bakshi Explains - YouTube
Not neutral but very sober:
Interesting take on how lots of āaverageā Russians see this as good times.
I donāt know that NATO or Ukraine could take that view.
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I did do work in small town Russia long time ago and I can see it. They had city heating (which was too warm for me in Winter) for us very inexpensive. I think the reason a lot of Russians like a strong man is that they HAVE BEEN subjected to invasions from all sides. Crimean war, 1914, Late WW1 intervention in , Vladvostok, North East and Crimea, 1941, 20 years of having NATO in Afghanistan which is close to Russia. The saying that Stalin was an SOB but he is OUR SOB pervertedly makes sense because they were invaded by a Country we saw them as subhuman and people to be murdered. This after it was a democratic Republic. And like the video says the Great Patriotic war is everywhere in Russia (the biased version), Propaganda that refers to it fits.
People who never went to Russia often donāt get this. We see them as the invaders BUT a lot of invading went the other way as well and horribly.
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Interesting video ā¦
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Russians also have a mentality of them against us which means that many Russians do not view themselves as aggressors and in almost every conflict theyāve been in they have either been defending their homeland or helping liberate a country from oppression. They may even hate their own leadership(Stalin) but they also viewed him as the one to lead us into glory much like Putin is for those who grew up in the USSR he is leading the Russian people to liberation.
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Yes no better way to liberate a nation from oppression then to bomb the civilians and civilian infrastructure until they submit to their new and better oppressors.
The them against us is always what the bullies at the top want the cowed people to think to make them follow the state narrative in stead of thinking on their own.
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