The Pittsburgh Press (May 16, 1941)
The Gallup Poll –
HIGHEST OPPOSITION TO WAR ENTRY FOUND IN WISCONSIN
By Dr. George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion
Princeton, N.J., May 16 –
On the question of immediate United States entrance into the European war, Wisconsin emerges today as the most “isolationist” state in the Union and Florida as the most “interventionist,” a nationwide study by the American Institute of Public Opinion indicates.
MAY 16
U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN EUROPEAN WARIf you were asked to vote today on the question of the United States entering the war against Germany and Italy, how would you vote – to go into the war or stay out of the war?
Would go in Vote to stay out Wisconsin 14% 86% Minnesota 15% 85% Iowa 15% 85% Indiana 15% 85% Ohio 15% 85% Massachusetts 17% 83% New Hampshire 17% 83% Illinois 17% 83% Michigan 18% 82% Nebraska 18% 82% South Dakota 18% 82% Connecticut 19% 81% Kansas 20% 80% North Dakota 21% 79% Maine 21% 79% Rhode Island 22% 78% Pennsylvania 22% 78% Washington 22% 78% Vermont 23% 77% New Jersey 23% 77% Missouri 23% 77% South Carolina 23% 77% California 23% 77% New York 24% 76% New Mexico 24% 76% Nevada 24% 76% Delaware 25% 75% Oklahoma 25% 75% Louisiana 26% 74% Tennessee 26% 74% Montana 26% 74% Utah 26% 74% Maryland 27% 73% West Virginia 27% 73% Kentucky 27% 73% Idaho 27% 73% Oregon 27% 73% Georgia 28% 72% Arkansas 28% 72% Virginia 28% 72% Mississippi 28% 72% Colorado 28% 72% North Carolina 29% 71% Alabama 29% 71% Texas 29% 71% Wyoming 29% 71% Arizona 33% 67% Florida 35% 65%
In Wisconsin, which is represented in Washington today by Senator Robert M. LaFollette, Institute surveys find only 14% – or about 1 in 7 – in favor of immediate U.S. entrance.
There is something of an historic echo in this Wisconsin vote, for it was Wisconsin’s elder LaFollette who staged a 17-hour filibuster against war in the U.S. Senate 24 years ago.
In Florida, however, the survey finds 35% in favor of American entrance into the war at this time. Florida is not only the home of the “interventionist” Senator Claude Pepper, but it is also the state nearest the Panama Canal and the strategic Caribbean and South Atlantic areas.
South most interventionist
The Institute’s findings are based on a series of studies of war sentiment which were begun in the first weeks of the wear, and which have been brought up to date as of the end of the first week in May.
Analysis of more than 30,000 interviews with voters in all parts of the United States reveals that, in general, the number who favor immediate U.S. entrance are most numerous in the Southern states and in the Rocky Mountain area, while the largest proportions opposed to entrance now are in the Midwest and in some of the New England states.
Of the 10 most “interventionist” states – Florida, Arizona, Wyoming, Texas, Alabama, North Carolina, Colorado, Mississippi, Virginia and Arkansas – only three are outside the South.
Of the ten most “isolationist” states, eight are in the upper Mississippi Valley and two are in New England. The 10 include: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Illinois, Michigan and Nebraska.
New York in middle
It is interesting to note that New York State, which is sometimes considered the center of interventionist sentiment, falls almost exactly in the middle when the states are listed in the order of isolationist and interventionist opinion.
Pennsylvania was also in the middle classification. 22% of the state’s voters would favor entering the war; the other 78% are still opposed. The state was divided exactly as were Rhode Island in the East and Washington in the Northwest.
The Institute’s question, which is the same it has used in measuring the trends of American opinion on war entrance for many months, indicates approximately the way opinion might divide today if a nationwide war referendum were to take place, as proposed in the Ludlow referendum plan.
Voters were asked:
If you were asked to vote today on the question of the United States entering the war against Germany and Italy, how would you vote – to go into the war or stay out of the war?
The national totals show a great majority of Americans still opposed to taking the war initiative at this time, despite a slight increase in war sentiment in the past 60 days.
The following figures show the national trend since the Battle of the Balkans, with replies limited to those with definite opinions. In each case, approximately one person in 20 had no opinion or was undecided:
Would go in Vote to stay out March (before Balkan Campaign) 17% 83% April (during Balkan Campaign) 19% 81% May (after Balkans 21% 79%
It should be pointed out that the survey question reflects opinion as of this time only – and not what opinion might be under all eventualities. Previous Institutew survweys have shown that a majority (71%) feel they would favor war if it appeared certain to them that Germany and Italy would otherwise be triumphant.
Furthermore, in every state but Wisconsin, the Institute has found majorities holding the belief that it is more important for the United States to aid Britain “even at the risk of getting into the war,” than to concentrate on staying out of war.
Latest Institute studies have given strong grounds for believing, first, that most Americans believe or outright intervention is not yet required, and second, that America is not yet ready for fighting in terms of 1917-18.
With regard to today’s state-by-state analysis, the reader should remmebr that a margin of error is involved in every sampling operation, due to the size of the sample itself. In the present study, the statistical probabilities are that the average error per state resulting from the size of the sample will not exceed 4 percentage points. Actually the study compares closely in scope with the Institute’s 1940 Presidential survey, in which the average error from all sources proved to be only 2.4 percentage points.