The Pittsburgh Press (November 4, 1946)
Poll: Greatest GOP sweep since ‘20s indicated in voting tomorrow
Survey finds 58% favor Republicans for Congress; Dewey, Bricker far ahead
By George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion
Final pre-election polling results point to an easy victory tomorrow for the Republicans in their fight to win control of the House of Representatives.
The dimensions of the Republican sweep can be gauged by the latest national survey among people giving evidence of an intention to vote:
| For Republican congressmen | 58% |
| For Democratic congressmen | 42% |
This country has not witnessed a Republican surge of such proportions since the ‘20s.
Democrats drop since ‘42
Today’s figure of 42 percent for the Democratic candidates for Congress represents a drop of five and a half percentage points since 1942, when Republicans came within nine seats of taking control of the House.
In the 1944 election, Democratic candidates for Congress obtained 52 percent of the votes cast; the GOP 48 percent.
Although Democratic losses will be registered in all parts of the country where seats are being contested, their losses will be most keenly felt thus year in the metropolitan areas which heretofore have been the chief Democratic strongholds outside the “Solid South.”
Vote to influence ‘48
Tomorrow’s indicated GOP victory will touch off one of the hottest fights mx history for the next Republican presidential nomination.
The majorities given to Gov. Thomas E. Dewey in New York, John M. Bricker in Ohio, Arthur H. Vandenberg in Michigan, Edward Martin in Pennsylvania, Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. in Massachusetts, and others will be closely studied by political observers, with 1948 in mind.
These candidates, often mentioned as Republican presidential nominee possibilities for 1948, are all due to win in their races tomorrow by large majorities.
Warren already ‘in’
Gov. Earl Warren of California, another 48 GOP presidential possibility, already has been assured of re-election. He won both the Republican and Democratic primaries.
Observers have singled out two races as having a special bearing on 1948 – Dewey vs. Mead in New York, and Bricker vs. Huffman in Ohio.
Gov. Dewey, of course, was the standard bearer for the Republican Party in 1944, and Gov. Bricker was his running mate.
Final poll figures in New York and Ohio are:
| New York | |
|---|---|
| For Dewey | 61% |
| For Mead | 39% |
| Ohio | |
|---|---|
| For Bricker | 60% |
| For Huffman | 40% |
First signs of a substantial drop in Democratic congressional voting strength were evident early in September. Institute surveys reported in mid-October showed Republican congressional strength at 57 percent.
Independents shift
In the most recent surveys of the nation – made during the past week – further gains were registered by the GOP, with the final figure at 98 percent.
Contributing to the troubles of the Democratic Party this year is a marked loss of support from independent voters.
Whereas, 62 percent of this group in 1944 favored the Democratic Party, Institute polls recently found that independent voters had reversed their position. They gave the Republican Party 59 percent of their vote, the Democratic Party 41 percent.
Small vote forecast
The Democrats also again will suffer a loss of votes because of the “stay-at-homes” … people who do not bother to go to the polls, especially in “off-year” or non-presidential national elections.
This year the total national vote will fall far below the 1944 presidential vote of 48 million. It will in fact be well below the 43 million, which statistical experts view as a normal turnout for 1946.
If voter registration in New York City in October proves as accurate an index of voter interest this year as it has in the past, about 94 million voters throughout the nation will cast ballots tomorrow.