Poll: 'Flu' epidemic hits fourth of adults in U.S. (4-12-41)

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The Pittsburgh Press (April 12, 1941)

‘FLU’ EPIDEMIC HITS FOURTH OF ADULTS IN U.S.
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Record since 1918 may have been set – official data inadequate
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Editor’s note:
Colds and flu well deserve their rank as the nation’s No. 1 health problem, yet – surprisingly enough – almost no real information has heretofore existed as to the prevalence of these ills throughout the nation as a whole. In a new nationwide investigation of the incidence of colds and flu since last fall, the American Institute of Public Opinion provides some of the first original evidence ever available on the subject on a national scale. The following is the first of two articles by Dr. George Gallup.

By Dr. George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion

Princeton, N.J., April 12 –
The past winter will go down in U.S. public health records as one of the worst in recent years for “flu” and grippe. In the first 10 weeks of 1941, more than half a million cases of the flu – mostly of the “mild” variety – were reported to U.S. health authorities.

Yet even the records of the U.S. Public Health Service, headed by capable Surgeon General Thomas Parran, do not begin to indicate how widespread was the sweep of the 1940-41 flu, nor how costly it was in lost working time and reduced physical efficiency for millions of Americans.

Many cases unreported

For the fact is that millions of Americans had the flu this winter without calling in a doctor, and because of differences in local regulations, many cases of flu in which a doctor was called were never reported to U.S. health authorities.

The probable dimensions of the past winter’s flu epidemic are indicated today for the first time in a survey by the American Institute of Public Opinion. Questions put to a cross-section of several thousand men and women in all parts of the country – the results of which will be of particular interest to the medical profession – point to the following conclusions:

  1. That fully a fourth of the adult population suffered from flu or gripps during the past winter. When this figure is applied to the total adult population of more than 80 million, the survey indicates that at least 20 million adult Americans were affected between October and March.

  2. Even this number does not include cases among children and others under 21, which would mean an additional 12 or 13 million cases.

  3. While flu and grippe spared no section of the country – and neither the cities nor the farms – it appears that the highest flu rates were in small towns and rural areas, and in the South and West.

  4. Inadequacy of health records is indicated by the fact that only one person in three who reported having had the flu said he called a physician. The remainder said they had doctored themselves – either because “it wasn’t serious enough to call a doctor,” or “because we couldn’t afford one.”

APRIL 12
FLU EPIDEMIC

Have you had the flu or grippe since October?

Percentage of adults Estimated no. of adults
Yes 25% 20,000,000
No 75% 60,000,000

The Institute estimates that nearly 2.5 million of the 20 million suffered more than one attack during the six-month period.

The 1918 epidemic

While the 1940-41 epidemic cannot be compared at all in deadliness with the terrible wave of Spanish flu in 1918-19, when 548,000 deaths were reported from this cause in the United States alone, and when 15 million are thought to have died of it throughout the world, last winter’s flu may easily have been the most widespread in years.

The first great flu epidemic of which medical men have substantial records occurred in the winter of 1889-90, and was widely felt in Europe.

An almost forgotten German statistician conducted a limited house-to-house survey in various parts of his own country and estimated that 25-50% of the whole German population had been affected.

Similar house-to-house tests in 1918-19 convinced American health men that the epidemic of that year had touched 25-50% of the U.S. public.

Analysis of survey

The following percentages shows the incidence of the flu as reported by adults in various sections of the country and various population groups:

Flu since October Escaped flu
Men 24% 76%
Women 27% 73%
Farmers 27% 73%
Towns and cities under 10,000 27% 73%
Cities 10,000 to 100,000 24% 76%
Cities 100,000 and over 21% 79%
New England-Mid-Atlantic 23% 77%
East Central 22% 78%
West Central 26% 74%
South 29% 71%
West 26% 74%

Next: How serious is the extent of America’s No. 1 health problem – the common cold?

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Good thing they’re getting all the pandemics out of the way now.

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The Pittsburgh Press (April 13, 1941)

The Gallup Poll –
50 MILLION ADULTS LOSE 59 MILLION DAYS DUE TO COLDS
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Health survey covering last five months give first real data on common ailment
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Editor’s note:
Colds and flu have been classed by U.S. authorities as the nation’s No. 1 health problem. But heretofore almost nothing has been known about their actual prevalence in the nation as a whole. Just how widespread these ills can be – and how much sheer economic loss can be involved as a result – is indicated for the first time in a nationwide Gallup Poll.

By Dr. George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion

Princeton, N.J., April 12 –
For the first time in U.S. history, it has been possible to chart the extent of America’s No. 1 health problem – colds and flu.

Evidence from a nationwide health survey by the American Institute of Public Opinion indicates that in the past winter:

  • More than 50 million adults suffered from colds.
  • More than 20 million were affected by the flu.

The results are convincing proof that the two ailments can be written down as the source of more lowered physical efficiency – and greater economic loss – than any other illnesses on the American medical calendar.

Foe while health authorities have had impressive statistics on tuberculosis, pneumonia, heart disease and other major ills, they heretofore have been largely in the dark regarding the extent of colds and flu in the total population.

The reason, of course, is that most cases of flu – and the overwhelming majority of colds – are simply never reported to doctors and health authorities.

Two out of three have colds

Here are the findings from the Institute survey which will give medicos and health authorities some of the first evidence ever obtained on the incidence and cost of the two ailments throughout the 48 states:

  1. Between October and March, nearly two adults in every three suffered from colds at one time or another.

  2. This means that more than 50 million adults suffered loss of vitality, efficiency or working time because of colds in the last six months. And even this estimate is on the conservative side, since the survey does not include persons under 21 years of age. Assuming the same rate of incidence among those under 21, the results point to a total of about 84 million who were affected.

  3. In addition, the survey indicates that more than 20 million adults – or one in every four – were victims of last winter’s epidemic of flu and grippe.

  4. While the time lost on account of flu and colds combined was small in most individual cases 0 few being laid up more than two or three days – yet the accumulation of lost time, when spread over hundreds of U.S. cities and counties, comes to a staggering figure.

To provide some estimate of how much economic wastage alone was involved as the result of colds and flu, the Institute asked:

Did you lose any time from work this winter because of a cold or the flu?

59 million days lost

One person in five said he lost time from work of one kind or another, and the combined replies represented a total loss of approvximately 59 million working days – for employers and employees, laborers and white-collar workers, housewives and other adults.

Even the 1.25 million man-hours which the War Department has reported were lost by strikes affecting the Department’s program in the first three months of 1941 seems relatively small by comparison.

Perhaps the most striking fact – apart from the overall national picture – is the comparative evenness with which colds struck all groups in the population.

Affect rich, poor alike

Health authorities have been convinced that colds are far more common among the poor than the well-to-do, largely because of lower standards of diet and housing. While the figures bearr out this belief to some extent, the differences are perhaps not so great as might have been expected.

If last winter may be regarded as typical with respect to colds, then the following conclusions may be drawn:

  1. Colds are slightly more common in small towns and rural areas than in large cities.

  2. They are more common with women than with men.

  3. Older people (those over 50) seem to escape colds somewhat more than younger people, possibly because of less exposure through physical activity or perhaps through more accumulated resistance.

Have you had any colds this winter?

Yes No
National total 64% 36%
Men 63% 37%
Women 65% 35%
Under $1,000 67% 33%
$1,000 to $2,500 63% 37%
$2,500 and over 61% 39%
Farmers 65% 35%
Towns and cities under 10,000 66% 34%
Cities 10,000 to 100,000 63% 37%
Cities 100,000 and over 61% 39%

Of the more than 50 million adults estimated to have had colds, an estimated 13 million had two colds or more, 7 million three or more. Persons in the lower-income group tended to have two and three colds more often than other groups.

South hit hardest

While the sectional results of the Institute’s flu study, published yesterday in the Press, showed a copmparativel;y large figure for the Wet, where the 1940-41 flu epidemic is believed to have originated, it appears that the Western states suffered less from colds during the same period than any other section of the country.

Both flu and colds seem to have hit the South the hardest.

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