The Evening Star (October 30, 1946)
Moley: Sees 226 GOP House seats
By Raymond Moley
NEW YORK – According to estimates, previous articles in this political survey have shown that 202 Republicans will be sent to the House of Representatives from the states covered. Five states remain to be considered: Missouri, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Washington and California.
The ultimate outcome in these five states is moat difficult to predict. Late reports are confusing. Results in several districts hang on many circumstances which will not be apparent until the vote is counted.
In Missouri, as the final days of the campaign open, the best and most impartial observers see a considerable Republican advantage. Sen. Frank P. Briggs, Democrat, seems to be in serious difficulty. If he loses by a substantial vote to his opponent, James P. Kem, an additional House seat may shift to the Republican side. In any event it looks as if the 8th district, narrowly won by the Democrats in 1944, will swing back to Its former Republican status. Also, the 11th, a St. Louis district, will return to the Republican fold. Both seats were Republican in 1942. Another St. Louis seat, formerly held by John J. Cochran, probably will ride along with the senatorship.
The fight for the Slaughter district, in which President Truman figured in the primary, is hot, but it isn’t safe to underestimate the ability of the Pendergast machine backed by the national administration. The national administration will make a heavy drive in Missouri before election. A rock-bottom guess of two more Republicans is indicated, which will give the state eight Republican Congressmen.
Oklahoma is having a terrific campaign, with considerable indications of a Republican trend. It is a state in which sharp changes occur between elections. It now has two Republicans and will probably elect three.
Anything can happen in New Mexico, where Patrick J. Hurley is battling with the veteran Sen. Dennis Chavez. Two congressmen are elected at large. No Republican congressmen have been elected in New Mexico since 1928, although the late Sen. Bronson Cutting won narrowly in 1934.
Republicans count on a considerable vote for Hurley among former Oklahomans in the eastern part of the state and on the break between Chavez and Gov. John J. Dempsey. Money and patronage count heavily in the state, and there will be plenty of both. But unless there is a heavy trend, it would not be wise to claim any Republican congressmen.
The situation in Washington is extremely confused. Strangely enough, there seems to be voter apathy, especially in Republican counties. Hie congressional districts have strong individuality and are less likely to follow the senatorship vote than in most states. The two sitting Republicans seem safe.
Observers out there think that the 3rd district, which was Republican in 1942 by a substantial majority and Democratic in 1944, will return to the Republicans. Two other contests are close. The best guess is three Republicans from Washington.
Last, and far from least, is California. Private opinions from Democrats suggest a gain of four seats for the Republicans. Private opinions from Republicans are pessimistic. The foregoing sentences characterize the confusion which prevails.
All things considered, however, two seats – one in the Oakland area, another in Los Angeles County, now represented by Ellis Patterson – certainly should shift. Republican chances are fair in San Diego and good in Long Beach. A fairly safe guess is that California will elect 10 Republicans.
With the 24 seats counted in this article, this survey anticipates Republican control of the House with 226 seats. I believe it is conservative estimate. The reader is offered only one assurance: that every effort has been made to get the proper facts and opinions.
In the next column in this series, the Senate prospects will be considered. In the final article, to be published on the eve of election, there will be a checkup based on last-minute information.