The Evening Star (November 1, 1946)
Moley: Battle for Congress
By Raymond Moley
At this writing, the contest for Senate control is so close that John L. Lewis’ negotiations with the government may decide it. Harley M. Kilgore’s seat in West Virginia may tip the balance.
Thirty-five Senate seats are to be decided in the forthcoming election. This eliminates the “complimentary” terms to run between election and January 20, 1947.
Six of the 35 contests are in the South, where election is automatic. Eleven are in Tennessee, Arizona, Rhode Island, Utah, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Vermont, North Dakota and Connecticut, where the outcome is certain and where the results will not change the party proportions in the Senate. Almost the same certainty is present in Nevada, Maryland and-New Jersey. In these states, also, no change in party is involved.
This leaves 15 seats where changes in party affiliation are probable or possible. Of these 15, two Republican and 13 Democratic seats are at stake.
The present Senate alignment is 56 Democrats, 39 Republicans and one Progressive. Republicans must hold their present seats and gain 10. It is not certain that they will retain two of their present seats, and so in our calculation we must start at rock bottom, with 37 virtually certain seats. To these we can, with practical certainty, add those in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Delaware. That brings us to 41.
Beyond that, considerable doubt surrounds the remaining 11 contests – in California, Kentucky, Missouri, New York, Massachusetts, Idaho, Wyoming, Washington, Montana, New Mexico and West Virginia. Reliable and impartial observers in these states have told this reporter within the past two days that Republicans have the edge in Kentucky, Missouri, New York, Massachusetts, Idaho and Washington and that the outcome is extremely close in California, Wyoming, Montana, New Mexico and West Virginia.
Since Republicans must win in eight of these states, it is only fair to point out that a high degree of speculation must attend a prediction that the required 49 Republicans will be elected.
Many “ifs” are involved. If Thomas E. Dewey wins by a very large majority, and that seems indicated, Irving M. Ives will beat Herbert H. Lehman by a considerably smaller majority. Lehman will run 300,000 ahead of James M. Mead, who is Dewey’s opponent. If private polls are to be trusted, Henry Cabot Lodge will beat David I. Walsh in Massachusetts. If the best political reporters in Missouri are right, James P. Kem will beat Frank P. Briggs. If reports of the feelings of stockmen scattered over the ranges of Wyoming are to be reflected in their votes. Joseph C. O’Mahoney will lose. If an advantage in debate, which certainly prevailed in Washington last week, continues, Harry P. Cain will beat Hugh B. Mitchell. If color, energy and money can beat the shrewd and well intrenched Dennis Chavez in New Mexico, Pat Hurley will win. If Democratic organizational troubles in Kentucky are as bad as reported, the Republicans will keep the Kentucky seat.
California is a mystery. The best reporters there say it is exceedingly close, with time working for William F. Knowland over Will Rogers Jr.
If John L. Lewis can depict the Truman administration as opposed to the interests of his miners in the forthcoming negotiations in Washington. Harley M. Kilgore will lose in West Virginia, and that might tie or give the Senate control to the Republicans.
Finally, if a vast undercurrent of opposition to the Democrats is under way on election day, possibly all these States will go Republican.
But it must be noted that the trend toward the Republicans is strongest in the Midwest, fairly strong in the East and weakest in the West. Its strength is not uniform.
In a final column in this series, there will be a last-minute resurvey of both House and Senate contests.