Interesting theory, and one that I look forward to when the history comes in. To me, the questions the Japanese would have to be asking themselves- 1) what are the chances that the US can make more bombs, and 2) what would the USSR be willing to sacrifice?
After losing so many people fighting Germany, and that Japan didn’t have people in the USSR, it is a good question how much the USSR would put into the fight. The one thing that would keep them going is getting part of all of Japan for their own empire- as it looked like they would get (and did) in Eastern Europe, on the other hand, losing as many people as they did…
Certainly the timing makes it look like the USSR’s actual entry into the fight as the last straw.
On a side note, I’m not sure how realistic it was for Japan to try to negotiate with the USSR to save face (sort of). Being tied to Italy and Germany would place their view on the future in the opposite direction of the USSR.
Anyway, seeing the greater details from WWII in real time will be fascinating, no doubt. From an American’s standpoint, it’s good for Americans to actually realize how much the USSR sacrificed in the fight- much of that was heavily muted post war once the Cold War warmed up.
Thanks Alpha, your extended reply is much appreciated! As feeble the Japanese forces were in the province of Manchuria, or Mantsjukwo as they renamed it, still, considering the Soviet Union just fought a, no,THE most lethal and gruesome war against Nazi Germany (never forget), it is really staggering to see how quickly and capable the Soviets switched to the other side of their enormous country and also immediately squashed the Japanese garrison. This, I think, was a sounding of the last round
While we have a few years to wait for WWII IRT to cover it, seeing what the Soviets had in the East, and then how much more they then moved over there will be fascinating.
Again tnx, Erik, I do appreciate and share your enthusiasm and anticipation on seeing what Indy eventually will make out of this! On a footnote, the Soviets were secretly approached by the Japanese to negotiate a separate peace, but Stalin wouldn’t budge because, as you too point out, he saw his big opportunity to gain ground, both in Eastern Europe and in the eastern part of Asia. I guess he was loving the east🤣
I agree about the Soviets paying a huge cost in lives, and the Red Army carried much of the load. But just how much of the Soviet Union’s massive losses were self-inflicted?
Stalin purged his best generals.
Stalin signed the non-aggression pact with Germany, which allowed for Hitler to take France out unmolested. In fairness, Stalin calculated that France would hold out greater than 5 weeks and that both sides would be weakened. It was still a massive miscalculation, though.
Stalin chose to ignore all the evidence that Germany was planning an attack and thus left the Red Army and Air Force in a position where it could be surprised and wiped out during the opening days of Barbarossa.
The Red Army was poorly run and deployed throughout 1941 (see point #1).
And the West contributed aplenty to the success of the Red Army:
Air attacks on the Reich drew the Luftwaffe away and left the skies open to the Red Air Force.
Foodstuffs provided through Lend Lease likely prevented mass starvation during 1942. (Remember that the Soviet Union lost practically all of its agricultural resources during Barbarossa.)
Lend Lease trucks allowed for the Red Army to be far more mobile than the Germans. Operation Bagration wouldn’t have been possible without that mobility.
Allied offensives in the West tended to draw the best formations away from the Eastern Front. So you can’t just look at numbers; one must consider quality as well.
I am sorry but I simply fail to see your point considering this discussion, although many things you state might even be somewhat near to the truth, they surely are all besides the point of this topic.
So, I suggest you start your own topic on Soviets during ww2.
No hard feelings
I have read and appreicate all of the replies to boemboemtsjak’s original observation. I first came across the viewpoint about the USSR’s entry being the pivotal cause of the Japanese surrender when watching a series on Netflix titled “Oliver Stone’s Untold History of the United States” and thought it was very insightful at the time. I still do. However, while there are good arguments that the atomic bombs weren’t the primary cause of the Japanese surrender, I think the existence of the bombs could have been an incentive for Stalin to attack Japan as quickly as he did to ensure Soviet influence in the area in the post-war era. Otherwise, he might have been content to take his time with attacking Japan so that the US could suffer heavy casualties in a conventional assault of the islands. In other words, Stalin’s knowledge of the existence of the bombs resulted in a speedier Soviet assault against the Japanese, which ended up sparing American lives from having to invade. Just an idea. Thanks for letting me share it.
Thank you so much for your contribution to this topic, I think you hit the nail on the subject with your comment.
However, I would like to add that the Soviets were not aware of the bomb up to the Potsdam conference, Lucy didn’t know and also Stalin was eager to get his pickings.
Again tnx for your input
The idea that the Soviets did not know of the bomb until Potsdam is kind of questionable- in hindsight, the US figured out that the Soviets were getting fed info, and all signs show that Stalin was not surprised when Truman told him about the test.
And there’s not much question if the Soviets were not interested in letting the US go through as many troops as they could- it’s not as if the West did not let that happen to the USSR, even with their management of the war. Which makes the theory that they jumped in because the first bomb was used makes a lot of sense to me- they saw that with enough bombs, it would make the invasion considerably easier for the US.
The problem is that the Soviet Union’s entry into the war was not the primary factor for the Japanese decision to surrender according to the Japanese who were there during those events when they were interviewed after the war.
All of them after the end of the war stated the atomic bombings led them to seriously take unconditional surrender as a real option and it was the bombings that convinced Emperor Hirohito to break the tie and force the government to agree to the Potsdam Agreement. Sure fear of Soviet occupation was a concern, but it was not the trigger that caused the surrender according to those who were there.
In his surrender speech to the Japanese people, Hirohito talks about the atom bombs and the consequences of their continued use that forced his hand, not the Soviet Union.
I have yet to hear any interview from those in the Japanese government at that time refer to the USSR as THE reason for their surrender. It is always about the A-Bomb.
You should not always believe what you hear: as they say, in war, the first casualty is the truth. Please consider that even during the latter stages of ww2, the cold war already went into full swing, so propaganda and biased opinion was already a factor of importance. Japanese politicians knew that the Americans would be much more willing to eventually let the Japanese way of life be reastablished and they were all to aware of Soviets attrocities. Also, the one condition from the Japanese, to retain the position of their emperor would very likely be agreed upon by the USA, but surely never by Stalin. Hirohito intentionally used the bombings, in my humble opinion, as a diplomatic pretext to smooth out the future relationship with the USA, realising they would come out of this war as the greatest victor.
Well Actually 3 things happened which caused Japan to surrender (the most direct things) 1 was they atomic bomb and the Japanese knew about the E equals MC square equation. The Soviet invasion came later and then there was the coup of the military that failed.
The problem with history is that we cannot really replay by taking away 1 of the 3 and go back to 1945 and see what happens. Which makes it a lot harder than e.g. make a different nuke and see if it explodes. Historians can’t really redo the steps.
We know that Japan at the time was deeply religious and was hoping for a repeat for of the 13th century invasion attempts (which failed). Also they had a deep fear of being colonized like the rest of the Far East AND pursued a in my view understandable strategy of making any invasion prohibitively expensive. The US forces suffered massively as well in Okinawa, Saipan and Iwo Jima and and invasion would be very difficult. The United States/UK were the ones with excellent naval power.
So the Soviets could invade Manchuria but I wonder whether they could have successfully invaded Japan. Some historians point out that they took Sakhalin but that was AFTER the surrender. Had the Soviets or US/UK +Allies suffered a failed attempt one can wonder whether a peace without invasion would be an option. Note everyone in the US and UK was interested in a war which could last until 1948 leading to many thousands additional coffins while massive amounts of resources went to rebuilding Europe and “the colonies”. The latter was a big priority and the decolonization was already starting.
The arrival of the atomic bomb was a science fiction weapon of enormous power. It was slated to use as a tactical weapon which could lead to massive instant deaths and radiation poisoning. Suddenly the US had a wonderweapon and it was unlikely that they would have been demoralized.
Here is an excerpt of the speech of Hiro-Hito, sadly many writers sum up the horrors of the bombs yet just plainly “forget” to write about the speech. The way the US forces had been slaughtering Japanese military and also civilians in 1945 makes the speech below understandable.
Excerpt on the bomb, link to full speech below "Moreover, the enemy has begun to employ a new and most cruel bomb, the power of which to do damage is, indeed, incalculable, taking the toll of many innocent lives. Should we continue to fight, it would not only result in an ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation, but also it would lead to the total extinction of human civilization.
Such being the case, how are we to save the millions of our subjects, nor to atone ourselves before the hallowed spirits of our imperial ancestors? This is the reason why we have ordered the acceptance of the provisions of the joint declaration of the powers.
We cannot but express the deepest sense of regret to our allied nations of East Asia, who have consistently cooperated with the Empire toward the emancipation of East Asia."
Finally just to be clear, the Soviets did help massively to defeat Nazi Germany as well a many smaller countries. Also to be fair the Japanese don’t give any context on why the bombs were dropped and portray themselves as the liberators of Asia which in a sense is true because they did trigger the decolonization and are right to ask the question “What were the Dutch/British/French doing in my neck of the woods”. I know Dutch history likes to concentrate on the Japanese crimes but is a lot less forthcoming about the horrors in Indonesia, Suriname, India and etc etc. Had I been Japanese I would have supported kicking the Westerners out of Asia, their museums were a big eye-opener for me.
Many thanks, Chewbacca, for your extensive reply and your quote on Hirohito.
As you rightly point out, there never, or at least, rarely is only one right answer for any of these complex issues. This was my main reason to open up this discussion and get some sound and refreshing points of view on the matter, which you surely provided by your, much appreciated contribution.
Being Dutch myself, I am very much ashamed of what has been done to all people during all those ages of suppression and colonization. As Timeghost already have made a very good coverage on the ‘politionele acties’ I am confident that this forum and community is on the right track to ‘never forget’
Thank you again!
You are welcome, indeed there are always multiple causes. I can’t see why some people want to narrow it down to one cause. E.g. when I bought my house, said yes to a job I did have multiple advantages and disadvantages to consider. For the people involved in those decisions it must have been wildly complex knowing that many people including themselves were at the risk of losing their lives. Like today they probably also often listened to experts. (OK I shouldn’t mention Covid but it is kind of a war against a virus with hard decisions whatever we think).
“.‘politionele acties’ I am confident that this forum and community is on the right track to ‘never forget’”
Politionele actions, like it was just a “police kind of action to arrest the criminals” exactly describes how the mess in Indonesia has been minimized. It seemed more like a continuous war in Atjeh and putting up the locals against each other. When I was young there still was the “nostalgic view” of Indonesia (well there still is). One of the things that horrified me were the tourist guides of the thirties with pictures of barebreasted local women. It is not hard to see the subtext there. I don’t believe in “inherited guilt” but a lot of Dutch people are still very unaware how Indonesians feel about Dutch politicians who lecture them on environmental issues etc. Or just plainly are unaware that “we” were in India as well. Actually I always get good feedback when I show my knowledge of our darker history.
What I like about Timeghost TV is that they really, really do their absolute best to tell about the horrors. And I learned a log of new stuff from the Indonesia episodes.
I wish we had more people from India/Japan and other places on this forum. I am trying to spread the word though. This series is monumental.
Although your reply is beside the point of this topic, I couldn’t agree with you more, Marc.
I appreciate and share your enthusiasm for the opportunity Timeghost gives us to actually discuss issues that are most important to try and work on world peace and mutual respect and understanding.
Thank you! Check out that thread to see more on America’s involvement and how the media at large covered the war.
It’s just that I just got demoted again (thanks stupid trust system) so I’m in a bit of a lull regarding the updates on the America at war! thread. The reason I create wikis of the posts is because I want to edit them long after the post is written.
Check out that thread to see more on America’s involvement and how the media at large covered the war.