The Pittsburgh Press (October 27, 1944)
‘Dutch Country’ is mad –
Trend in Lehigh County indicates vote for Dewey
Considered good barometer for state in past; farmers are sore about government forms
By Kermit McFarland, Pittsburgh Press staff writer
Allentown, Pennsylvania –
The trend in the Dutch Country is away from the New Deal.
Usually Democratic in presidential years, if not at other elections, the shift this year has worked up to such a stage that there is a real prospect of the Republicans winning Lehigh County, often a good barometer for the state.
Every year Pennsylvania has gone Democratic in a national or statewide election, so has Lehigh. In the recent state elections won by the Republicans, Lehigh went Republican.
While local Democratic leaders still profess to see a Roosevelt majority in this county, the more impartial observers are convinced the county will go Republican.
Two years ago, Governor Edward Martin won the county by 6,000. Four years ago, President Roosevelt carried it by 3,400.
GOP registration lead
This year, the Republicans hold a voter registration lead of 2,370, and four years ago, the Democrats led in voter enrollment by 691.
The Republican majority here, if the forecasts are borne out, probably won’t make so much difference in the grand totals, but the fact that this is a “swing” county makes the outlook here significant.
And the reasons underlying the evidence of a Republican trend are significant because they are common, although in varying degree, to other parts of the state.
The most vocal of the “new” opposition to the New Deal – that is, from groups which hitherto have been pretty sod for the President – comes from the potato farmers in this county. They are disgruntled because they say the OPA and other government agencies have kept them in a lather with regulations, rulings, forms, quotas and “regimentation.”
Resent federal forms
The potato farmers are particularly expressive because, as they look at it, the potato business was the victim of a special “bungle” on the part of the Government.
Other farmers in this county sound off about the New Deal and “regimentation” in much milder terms and concrete evidences of a Republican trend among them are more difficult to trace.
Government forms, however, have been taking a toll of hitherto Democratic votes among the small businessmen of this and neighboring Northampton County – which this reporter also explored.
Republican leaders in this area are keyed up about the Nov. 7 outlook far more than in the last presidential campaign.
The district workers are more zealous about their work, they are putting in longer hours, they are operating like a group which thinks it has a winner. In the last two presidential years, they had an air of hopelessness about them.
Big silent vote
There is a good deal of evidence to show that while there is a large “silent” vote which puzzles the political dopesters, here and elsewhere in the state, there is a heavy interest in the election.
Political leaders on both sides say they don’t know what the “silent” vote intends to do, but both sides are hoping for at least an even break.
The fact that Mr. Roosevelt is running for a fourth term, the prestige of the Martin Administration at Harrisburg, the natural bent of American voters to turn, sooner or later, against the “ins,” the plethora of government regulations which have harassed salaried workers as well as businessmen, the Communist issue to some extent and wartime strikes also are cutting ice in the campaign hereabouts.
The CIO Political Action Committee staged an intensive registration campaign here before Oct. 7, and an even more aggressive drive in Northampton County, where the CIO has heavily organized industry. But the Republicans managed to hold their own in voter enrollment in Lehigh County. Northampton, as hitherto, has a Democratic majority.
Northampton for FDR
President Roosevelt generally is doped to carry Northampton, but by a majority somewhat under his 1940 lead. Four years ago, he was 7,900 votes ahead of the late Wendell Willkie. The generally accepted figure this time is an estimate of 6,000.
The Republicans in this end of the state are not making use of the billboard signs erected by the Republican committee in Allegheny County, which read, “If you want bring the boys home sooner… vote for Dewey and Bricker.” Here all the billboard signs read, “For Peace-Time Jobs, 1945-1949, vote for Dewey and Bricker.”
In Scranton and Lackawanna County, the Democrats profess not to be alarmed about the possibility of President Roosevelt losing the county, which he has carried three times. In this position they seem to be supported by the Republicans, who display little real hope of turning the county in Governor Thomas E. Dewey’s column.
But the Roosevelt majority, which exceeded 30,000 in 1936 and 16,000 in 1940, will be pared still further Nov. 7. Most guessers put the figure at 10,000, which is fairly close in a county of some 230,000.
In exact reverse to the situation in neighboring Luzerne County, the Lackawanna Democrats are a smooth outfit, and the Republicans are not too happy among themselves.