The Pittsburgh Press (February 17, 1944)
Background of news –
Convention dark horses
By Bertram Benedict, editorial research reports
Last week, Governor Bricker of Ohio, avowed candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, went to Washington to deliver two speeches and to be interrogated by newspapermen.
Not even the most ardent Bricker men maintain that he will lead on the first ballot at the convention. That position will probably go to Governor Dewey, unless he flatly declines to be considered or unless Wendell L. Willkie gets more support than he has at present from Republican leaders.
All of which brings up the question of how “dark horses” usually fare at the national nominating conventions.
A dark horse is not necessarily any candidate who is not in the lead on the first ballot. In 1940, Mr. Willkie could hardly have been called a dark horse, for on the first ballot he ranked third, with more than 10% of the total votes. In 1920, Governor Cox of Ohio was hardly a dark horse, for on the first ballot he ranked third, with 12% of the votes, while no candidate had as much as 25%.
Cox loses, then regains, lead
Mr. Cox had the almost unprecedented experience of regaining the lead after losing it. He went ahead on the 22nd ballot, with 40% of the votes, to 34% for McAdoo, but by the 30th ballot, McAdoo was in front once more, only to lose out.
In 1920, Senator Harding of Ohio was certainly a dark horse. On the first ballot at the Republican convention, he ranked sixth, with only 4% of the votes. More than one-half of the Harding votes came from his own state. And on the following three ballots, Harding’s vote was lower than on the first three ballots. Even on the eighth ballot, Harding had less than 15% of the votes; he jumped into the lead on the ninth ballot, and was nominated on the tenth.
John W. Davis in 1924 must also be considered a dark horse. On the first ballot at the Democratic convention in New York, he had only 3% of the votes, while McAdoo had 39% and Smith 22%. On the fifth ballot, when McAdoo had 40% and Smith 24%, Davis had only 5%. Davis was not nominated until the 103rd ballot, after the McAdoo and Smith forces had cancelled each other out.
Incumbents have edge
An incumbent President can usually control the party machinery sufficiently to get a renomination, if he wants it. That was true even in 1912, when the primaries showed an overwhelming preference of the Republican voters for ex-President Roosevelt over President Taft. There have been, in the 20th century, 14 major party nominating conventions in which an incumbent President was not again a candidate.
In only two of these 14 conventions did the nomination go to a dark horse – Harding in 1920, Davis in 1924.
In seven of these 14 conventions, the nomination went on the first ballot to the leading candidate – Landon in 1936 (unanimously), Hoover in 1928, Smith in 1928 (after shifts before a second ballot was called for), Bryan in 1908, Taft in 1908, Parker in 1904 (after shifts), Bryan in 1900.
In two of these 14 conventions, the leading candidate on the first ballot was named soon thereafter – Roosevelt in 1932 (on the fourth ballot; needing 66⅔ percent, he had 60½ percent on the first), Hughes in 1916.
In three of these 14 conventions, the second or third man on the first ballot was finally nominated – Willkie in 1940 (on the sixth ballot), Cox in 1920 (on the 44th ballot) and Wilson in 1912 (on the 46th ballot).