The Pittsburgh Press (October 29, 1944)
Philadelphia key in Roosevelt bid
Big majority needed to carry state
By Kermit McFarland, Pittsburgh Press staff writer
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania – (Oct. 28)
President Roosevelt’s arduous campaign here yesterday was based on the general beef among both active political leaders and local political writers that he will need an imposing majority in this city if he is to carry Pennsylvania again.
His personal appearance here, featured by a four-hour, 45-mile tour in an open car despite bitterly cold and wet weather, was designed to stir up the vote the Democrats believe is pro-Roosevelt.
The tour took the President through districts of the city which have generally backed him in previous elections. This strategy was in line with the now prevailing belief that to defeat Governor Thomas E. Dewey in Pennsylvania, every potential Roosevelt vote must be turned out to the polls.
Estimates on majority vary
Estimates on what will happen in Philadelphia, which four years ago gave Mr. Roosevelt a majority of 177,000, vary all the way from some wild-eyed Republican guesses of 30.000 for the President to some similarly extreme Democratic guesses of a 200,000 majority for him.
Democratic money is being bet on a Roosevelt majority of 135,000 and some conservative Democratic leaders are forecasting as much as 150,000. The real Republican figure, from the less rambunctious viewers of the situation, is a 75,000 Roosevelt majority.
The Philadelphia Bulletin, a conservative newspaper supporting Mr. Dewey editorially, published a poll, completed 10 days before Mr. Roosevelt’s visit, which shows 59 percent of the vote for the President and 39 percent for Mr. Dewey.
The Bulletin said one percent of those interviewed declined to say how they will vote and another one percent indicated preferences for minor party candidates.
All registered voters
The polltakers said they limited their results to persons who said they are registered and intend to vote. The survey was done with secret ballots.
This poll would indicate a Roosevelt majority of about 175,000, assuming that the total voter turnout equals that of four years ago. The poll did not take into account the vote of men and women in the armed forces, who have been sent 123,000 military ballots.
The President carried Pennsylvania four years ago by 281,000, which was almost precisely the sum of his majorities in Philadelphia and Allegheny counties, the total vote in the other 65 counties of the state being a virtual deadlock.
City’s vote important
In the face of evidence that the 1940 Roosevelt majorities elsewhere in the state are being pared down this year, the Philadelphia result becomes of major importance in the President’s bid for another term.
Estimates of the crowd which lined the streets to get a glimpse of the President as his motorcade toured the city ran all the way from 600,000 to two million. But no accurate guess was possible because the crowds were stretched out over 45 miles of streets.
In some sections, they were sparse, in others the congestion nearly blocked the progress of the President’s car.
Crowds friendly, smiling
There was nothing like the President’s visit in 1936, the last time he made a campaign here “in the usual sense,” when it took nearly two hours to go five miles along Market Street and into Camden.
The crowds yesterday were friendly, smiling and for the most part in a gay mood, despite the drenching thousands of them endured. But they did not show the hysteria which characterized the demonstration in 1936.
In some sections, there was little more than applause and smiles, with a few shouts of encouragement mixed in. But at the Navy Yard, where 30,000 civilians are employed, at Cramp’s Shipyards where there are 14,000 employees, and in Camden, New Jersey, where Mr. Roosevelt spoke briefly, the crowds were hilarious.
In Camden they had stayed in the rain upwards of an hour awaiting the President’s arrival. His short talk there was unscheduled. The cold rain was at its worst during the Camden visit.
Democratic leaders were well pleased with the crowds which appeared to greet the President. They said they believed the turnout particularly impressing in view of the weather, the fact that Mr. Roosevelt, before he finished the tour, was running almost an hour late and that thousands who are engaged in war work were unable to leave their plants.
Didn’t expect converts
They did not expect the President’s visit to convert many Dewey voters, but they did lay great stress on the value of the trip in stirring up enthusiasm among potential Roosevelt voters.
They are in the position of trying to show high confidence over the outcome of the election and at the game time impressing on the pro-Roosevelt voters the extreme necessity of going to the polls Nov. 7 if the President is to win.
In other words, while saying they are confident of a big Roosevelt majority here, they are endeavoring to break down any idea that it is a “sure thing.”