The Pittsburgh Press (November 2, 1946)
Edson: Mr. Bean makes some guesses on Tuesday election
By Peter Edson
WASHINGTON – Louis H. Bean is a quiet, bespectacled economist with a fine head of gray hair and matter who works in the Bureau of the Budget.
For nearly 10 years, going back to the time when he worked in the Department of Agriculture, his mathematical and recreational hobby has been studying election results and trends.
In 1938, he guessed that the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives would drop from 79 percent to about 60 or 65 percent. It turned out to be 63. In 1940, he said it looked like a 54 percent Democratic House, and it turned out 55.
He didn’t try to make a prediction in 1942, because he was working for the Board of Economic Warfare and didn’t have time. But in 1944, he guessed a 53 percent Democratic majority for the House, and it turned out to be 53.8.
This should establish Mr. Bean as something of an authority. he goes about this business as a statistician would. He has studied election results since 1854, the first year that both the Democratic and Republican parties were in existence. He has weighed election results against business conditions prevailing in every election year.
From this study he has come up with a couple of general observations which have interesting bearings on this year’s political dogfight:
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The voters have never thrown out the party in power unless there was sizable unemployment and depression.
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The smaller the total vote cast, the greater the Republican prospect for winning control of the House.
Rules conflict
This year these two general rules are in conflict. There is no mass unemployment nor depression. The total vote cast is going to be small, in spite of some indications of heavy registration in New York and other metropolitan areas which have had big population gains.
The total vote cast in 1940 was, in round numbers, 45 million. In 1942 it was only 28 million – a 40 percent drop caused by the war, which threw off all political factors. Normally, the total vote in off-year elections is only about 20 percent below the vote cast in years when a president is being elected. A 20 percent falling-off would have put the 1942 vote at 36 million.
The vote in 1944 was 45 million – six million short of the 51 million it might have been under normal conditions.
The indicated vote for 1946 is from 34 to 37 million, Take 35½ million as the average. If the vole were 20 per cent below the 51 million figure, it would be nearly 41 million. That’s why Mr. Bean says this year’s vote is going to be low, enhancing GOP chances.
“Normally,” says Mr. Bean, “for this kind of a drop in vote, the Democratic percentage of the total vote cast falls off three points. For every point dropped, the Republicans pick up 10 seals in the House.”
Take an example. In 1944, the total vote was 53 percent Democratic, and the Democrats won 243 seats to the Republicans’ 193. If the Democrats had won only 52 percent of the vole, the Republicans would have picked up 10 more seats. If the Democrats had had 51 percent of the vote, the Republicans would have picked up 20 seats.
This rule won’t apply for extreme changes, says Mr. Bean – only when the vote is close, divided around the 50-50 mark.
GOP chances
The way this works out is that the total vote can be as low as 47½ percent Democratic, and the Democrats still will keep control of the House. That’s because the southern states stay in the Democratic column, regardless of how majorities shift up north. It is borne out by the 1942 elections, in which the Democrats won only 47 to 48 percent of the total vote, but elected 222 congressmen.
When it comes to applying these principles to the 1946 election, the only figures on which to base a guess are from the last Gallup national poll. They show sentiment in the country divided only 43 percent Democratic to 57 percent Republican.
This indicated drop in Democratic sentiment from 53 percent in 1944 to 43 percent in 1946 is a 10-point change. If the rule of “10 seats for every percentage-point change” held good, this 10-point shift might mean a GOP gain of 100 seats. It doesn’t mean that, Mr. Bean hastens to add.
But, basing an estimate on the Gallup percentage and an indicated total vote of only 35 million, Mr. Bean says it would mean a gain of around 50 seats for the Republicans, or nearly twice the 26 additional seats they need to win control of the House.
Mr. Bean’s statistics don’t apply at all to Senate election results, and he won’t even hazard a long-shot guess at those.