Reading Eagle (April 16, 1941)
DOROTHY THOMPSON SAYS –
The Russian-Japanese Pact
In order to understand the Russian-Japanese pact of non-aggression, one must see the situation of Russia vis-a-vis Germany. It has steadily worsened since the Germans invaded Romania, an area of vital interest to the Soviet Union, without giving the Soviets any advance notice of the move. The move into Bulgaria, after Hitler had openly disclaimed any intention to send troops there, drew a reprimand from Russia. The move into Yugoslavia brought about what amounts to a real break in the “friendship” between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany. And the relations between Turkey and the Soviet Union indicate that Russia’s apprehension are growing rapidly.
Furthermore, Stalin is perturbed by the constant penetration of Nazi agents – Ukrainian, White Russian, Gruzian and Armenian minority leaders – into the Soviet Union.
Stalin is not the least interested in defending the British, or in aiding “democracy.” But he is vitally interested in defending the integrity of the Soviet Union. He wanted to keep war out of the Balkans because he wanted to see Germany turn westward and exhaust herself there. Now the Germans are on the Black Sea in Romania and Bulgaria, and are at the gates of Turkey. And for a drive on Suez, Germany must go through Turkey, in order to approach the canal by land. Furthermore Germany needs more oil, and must head towards Iraq. All this is very disturbing indeed to the Soviet Union.
Every indication in the last weeks shows that Stalin is preparing for trouble on his western borders. The best informed people all seem certain that the Soviet Union will not enter the war against Germany, unless she is attacked, but official emanations from Moscow do indicate that she is preparing to give what aid she can to Turkey, the last non-violated nation in the Balkans.
Naturally, she wants to be sure that if she becomes engaged in war in the West, Japan will not attack her in the East. The pact assures her of just this. Otherwise the pact is of very little bearing on the world situation. Russia cannot attack Japan in any case – and I doubt whether the pact will release a single Japanese soldier from China, for the Japanese know that in the long run Russia will always be hostile. And the Japanese have plenty on their hands from China, as it is.
If Japan decides to move against the British and eventually against American possession in the Far East, it is her navy\ that will be involved, and in this respect Russia can do nothing to help or hinder, and neither Hitler nor Mussolini can give Japan any aid. Hitler, of course, would like Japan to enter the war immediately, but the pact with Russia will have very little influence one way or the other, upon whether she decides to do so. For Japan knows that Russia will be too preoccupied in the West, to choose this moment for embroiling herself further with Japan.
On the other hand, the pact is a definite gain for Russia, for it means that Japan bows out of the Axis as far as Russia is concerned. It is therefore, it would seem, a loss for Germany, which has every interest in keeping Russia very weak and occupied elsewhere than in the Middle East. In the Far East, as far as Singapore and the British and American strongholds are concerned. I cannot see that it in any way alters the situation.
The German propaganda will do everything it can, of course, to persuade the citizens of this country that this pact introduces a brand-new element that makes it inadvisable for us to continue and increase assistance to Britain. I doubt whether our naval authorities will see it this way. In naval defense the vital and strategic areas are what matter, and the vital areas of this war are, for us, the North Atlantic – West Africa, Dakar, the Cape Verde Islands – and the British Isles themselves. Japan by herself will not be menace in the long run; Japan in conjunction with a victorious Germany in possession of four fleets, or parts of four fleets, would be a terrific menace. Now, as before, the outcome of this war, as a world problem, will be settled by the outcome in the West. The Middle East – Suez, the Red Sea, where the Japanese Navy might make a conjunction with German forces will also be a vital area. The latest moves of the President indicate that this country’s government is fully aware of where the strategically important areas lie.