Are Reds planning to fight? (1946)

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The Pittsburgh Press (September 16, 1946)

Are Reds planning to fight?
Russia lacks strength for first class war, Paris diplomats say

Belligerent blustering at peace conference covers up grave weaknesses at home
By Ludwell Denny, Scripps-Howard staff writer

At the Paris conference two questions are uppermost: Is Russia forcing a war? Is she strong enough now to fight a major war? The following dispatch is the first of a series on what these informed diplomats and their experts are saying among themselves.

PARIS – Russia’s belligerent blustering at the Paris conference and at the United Nations Security Council covers up grave weaknesses at home. She is not strong enough to fight a major offensive war successfully now or in the near future.

This is the judgment of representative American and European authorities here who have access to the best official reports on the subject.

They do not say there will be no war. They do not know. But the danger is sufficiently acute for them to investigate and evaluate Russia’s strength nest carefully. Their conclusion is that Russia is not adequately prepared to fight and know it but at the same time she continues to use provocative methods for aggressive ends which usually cause war.

Russia is in worse shape economically than is generally supposed. The devastation left to the war is still widespread, especially in White Russia and the Ukraine. Reconstruction and recovery is slow in all three basic elements for a war economy – agriculture, heavy industry and transportation.

The government promised an end to the unpopular bread rationing by July. Then the date was postponed until October. Recently Moscow announced it would be continued through next year. The failure of the Ukraine crops from drought was one cause. No government tantalizes its people with unfilled promises of lifting rationing for fun. The political consequences are too risky.

Nevertheless, the food shortage is not as extreme as some exaggerated reports have indicated. Good crops in some other regions partly have offset the western losses. So, net, the harvest is believed to be fair. But the point is that the reserves are low and the harvest is reported to be insufficient to build up the essential supplies.

War requires reserves of food

Those reserves are required by Moscow for two purposes: One is for relief next spring in the satellite countries after UNRRA withdraws food is essential as a Soviet political weapon in her sphere of influence. Second, for storage to bulk up a war reserve.

This shortage of food reserves is said to explain in part Moscow’s policy of keeping large occupation armies in other countries, where they can live off the land. More red troops are stationed in Eastern Germany and Austria than are required for immediate military purposes. Their training, reorganization and reindoctrination, so important to Moscow, could be carried out better inside Russia. Moreover, their continued presence in such excessive numbers is a political liability to the German and Austrian Communist parties which are trying to win over the natives.

But Russian home conditions being what they are, the Kremlin cannot afford to feed those Red Armies so long as they can find their own food abroad.

Slow industrial recovery is admitted officially by Moscow. Since June the Ministry for State Control has been purging many factory managers and others, charging them with inefficiency and corruption. The current five-year plan announced by Premier Josef Stalin last February to triple pre-war production has been running up against additional troubles other than national fatigue after the long, heroic effort and the shortage of industrial technicians.

The most striking evidence of this is the virtual collapse, for the time being at least, of the original Kremlin plan to rehabilitate and industrialize the country by moving German, Austrian and other conquered plants bodily to Russia. Today much of that machinery is lying scattered and rusting because of inability of the Russians to assemble and use it.

Transport weakest link in Russia

This failure, plus the time factor in the present war danger, has forced Stalin to reverse his plan. He now is leaving the factories in Germany and Austria and running them full blast with native technicians and labor to produce armaments and all type of goods for the Red Army.

The transportation situation is the worst of all. Traditionally a weak link in the Russian economy it suffered terrible war destruction. Hundreds of thousands of German prisoners still are held in Russia to repair rail lines, build bridges and highways.

Locomotives and railway equipment generally are problems. For example, on the Moscow-Leningrad main line the trip now takes from twice to three times the pre-war schedule.

It is not suggested here that these many evidences of Russia’s economic troubles will prevent her eventual recovery and growth as a leading industrial power. But for the present and near future Russia’s economic base is too narrow and too shaky, according to many international experts gathered here, to sustain the kind of war apparently threatened by the Soviet Union and its satellites.

NEXT: Political factors in the Soviet war threat

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The Pittsburgh Press (September 17, 1946)

Are Reds planning to fight?
Rank and file in Russia desperately long for peace

But Kremlin takes action to eliminate unrest evident as post-war trend
By Ludwell Denny, Scripps-Howard staff writer

PARIS – Conference delegates and experts here who know the internal situation as well as any foreigner can know it, report increasing political strain in Russia. They agree that the rank and file of the Russian people desperately want peace.

Nevertheless, officials here dismiss as nonsense reports that internal Soviet political dissension has reached serious proportions that the Kremlin’s control is jeopardized, or that the Russian people would fail to fight zealously if ordered.

Living so long behind the iron curtain, knowing only what the government radio and press report to be true, and thinking only what they are told to think, the Russian people doubtless can be made to believe – if and when Stalin desires – that any Soviet war of aggression is actually the defense of Mother Russia against “satanic capitalist conspiracy.”

Graft fought

Present internal political weaknesses in Russia seem less significant to international experts here than the Kremlin’s fast and vigorous measures to eliminate them. The extent of current political purges indicates the Kremlin thinks the chances of war are too big to risk even the mildest sort of intellectual freedom, which could be an asset in a peaceful period of national reconstruction.

It is not surprising that Moscow reports widespread inefficiency and graft among factory managers and others, and it is getting rid of them. Such laxity is a characteristic heritage of war, to some degree, in all countries. And the post-war period is time for exposes and tightening up efforts everywhere.

But what concerned the Central Committee of the Soviet Communist Party at its important meeting four weeks ago was “the state of the ideological front.” Hence the dispatch of top party officials to the four corners of the country to clean house – especially Party Secretary Zhdanov to Leningrad and Ukrainian Premier Khrushchev to his bailiwick.

According to the Soviet Press, Khrushchev said he found a dangerous revival of capitalist nationalist ideals. From 50 to 90 percent of party officials there were purged.

Griping may be wide

That percentage is so large even in purge-minded Russia as to suggest to foreign observers that the Kremlin considers the international emergency too grave to risk the time required to salvage so many key men, upon whom the burden of the home front would rest in war.

If local party leaders and functionaries have been getting dangerous ideas obviously lesser party members and large sections of the population outside privileged precincts of the Communist Party must be affected even more.

But deviation from the party line which would seem serious to the Kremlin might appear mild to foreigners – as, for instance. The post-war grumbling over lack of consumer goods and the idea that the Soviet state is less than perfect.

See how others live

In this connection millions of returning Red soldiers create a political problem. They have been beyond Russian borders and have seen that even backward countries such as Poland and Romania were further advanced in many ways than Russia – contrary to what they had been taught at home.

Budapest, Vienna, Prague, and Berlin were revelations of material progress of which they never dreamed. So “insidious western capitalist contact” which long has forced Stalin to purges, is now a problem involving millions rather than scores of Soviet citizens who have been outside the country.

But the main effects of this will be gradual rather than climactic, and it is probably something that the Soviet police can handle – now, at any rate. Reorientation camps to which many returning Soviet soldiers are subjected apparently are fairly successful. It is possible that the net effect of the Red Army’s contact with the outer world – if properly handled by political commissars and propaganda agencies – could be to stir the soldier’s appetite for more foreign crusades. That has happened to victorious armies before.

What’s Zhukov doing

As to the related question whether there is a serious internal fight for power in Moscow between the Politburo and rising military heroes, there is no agreement here. Some still think such a conflict explains the demotion of Marshal Gregory Zhukov, Others think Zhukov actually was promoted to the job of revamping the new army, and that he is in Odessa area because the Middle East and the Balkans are potentially the hottest war areas.

Likewise, there is no general agreement on whether V. M. Molotov – or which of his competitors – has the inside track as eventual successor to Stalin. While internal conflict is known to exist, there is no disposition here to assume any fatal disunity in the Kremlin now. It is believed that Stalin is still master.

Therefore, responsible officials here are much more impressed by Russia’s present economic weakness in relation to war danger than any major political barrier. The consensus is that the Russian people would fight anywhere and anytime Stalin gave the order.

NEXT: Are Soviet satellites war assets or liabilities?

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The Pittsburgh Press (September 18, 1946)

Are Reds planning to fight?
Russia’s satellite states of doubtful war value

Experts claim Moscow risks military over-extension under present system
By Ludwell Denny, Scripps-Howard staff writer

PARIS – Satellite states developed by Moscow for offensive bases and defensive ramparts in the event of war against the West are of doubtful value. In the judgment of experts here, Russia, by this satellite system, risks military overexertion and political indigestion.

This evaluation of Russia’s capacity actually to wage the major war she is now threatening diplomatically is based on present conditions. These may change in the future to Moscow’s advantage. If she is able to develop an adequate transportation system, her troops on the distant Stettin-Trieste line will not be so isolated from home bases or so vulnerably exposed as they are now. And if Communist minorities in the satellite states achieve the same degree of discipline that exists in Russia, they could become military assets.

Meanwhile, however, they are a belt of political conflict behind the Red Army’s front lines, and so a potential military lability rather than an asset.

Faith changes to fear

Moscow’s political strength in Europe is less than it was a year ago, or even three months ago. Last fall, the European masses may have looked upon Russia as a liberator and as the hope for the future, while distrusting Britain and the United States.

Today the reverse is true on most of the continent, outside of the Red minority. Conduct of the Red occupation armies, terrorism of Red secret police, Russian rule through puppet regimes which exploit the satellites for Russia’s economic benefit, and Kremlin policies which threaten another world war in which the satellites would be the first victims, have changed faith in Russia to fear.

This sentiment could shift back in Russia’s favor, as the result of either Anglo-American blunders or a more intelligent and humane Kremlin policy. But at present Eastern Europe’s loyalty is nothing for Stalin to lean on in case he starts war.

Actually Russia is strongest in those border countries where she appears weakest and vice versa. Her position is best in Finland and Czechoslovakia, where she has fewest troops and exercises the least direct control. In those countries reaction against the Soviet overlordship has been at a minimum. But in Poland and Romania, where the Red Army took almost everything and where Moscow control of the puppet governments and the secret police is most obvious, public reaction is strongest – even though much of it is still underground.

An extreme case of the Kremlin’s failure to capitalize on early post-war faith and friendship for Russia is in Austria, where hatred is now intense.

Fear secret police

If the reaction against Red Army excesses were the chief factor in the situation it could be mitigated. In fact, Moscow already has stopped most of those excesses in an effort to improve relations with the populaces and to help the position of local Communist parties.

Except in Austria, where Red troops still run amok, they are reported fairly well behaved and disciplined. The current personal fear is concentrated rather on the secret police. These police, though under Soviet orders, usually are native agents of the puppet regime, which gets most of the public’s blame.

But in other matters it is not so simple for Moscow to remove the cause of unrest or to shift responsibility for things which make the satellite peoples distrust Russia. This is particularly true where Russia has taken for herself crops and food, something not easily forgotten or forgiven by the hungry victims.

Moscow forces trade

Similarly, Moscow is cutting off Western markets on which the satellite peoples always have depended for survival, and forcing them to trade with Russia almost exclusively. Since Russia lacks commodities and consumer goods – formerly supplied by Western countries – to exchange for satellite products, this forced trade is largely a one-way process. This economic conflict is a growing source of friction.

Hence the Soviet sphere between Stalin’s Stettin-Trieste line and his own Russian frontier could prove a trap instead of a Red rampart if Russia starts war.

TOMORROW: Stalin counts on Western weakness.

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The Pittsburgh Press (September 19, 1946)

Are Reds planning to fight?
Reds may not provoke war if western Allies are united

Russia tries to weaken and divide democracies to speed Soviet expansion
By Ludwell Denny, Scripps-Howard staff writer

PARIS – The same international experts here who think Josef Stalin is unprepared for the war he threatens stress the point that Russia, even so, is stronger than the western nations if they are divided.

It is assumed therefore that he would not deliberately carry his present provocative policy to the point of war unless the western powers were split or likely to be.

Among the factors which could weaken the democracies and invite faster and wider aggressive expansion of Soviet power, the following four are emphasized:

  • Reversal of America’s present firm policy to the earlier appeasement attitude toward Russia, or even indecisive wobbling.

The current Wallace-Truman incident is an example of what European democracies fear and Moscow desires in the way of Yankee instability. Americans understand Henry A. Wallace’s irresponsibility and lack of influence on the administration’s foreign policy. They understand President Truman’s deplorable carelessness. So Americans accept Mr. Truman’s assurance that there is no change in Secretary of State James F. Byrnes’ policy.

See hidden meaning

But to Europeans that explanation is incomprehensible. Our friends as well as our critics here are certain there was profound hidden meaning and purpose behind the Wallace speech. Even if Mr. Wallace is fired or quits, Europeans still will question the stability and reliability of Mr. Byrnes’ firm policy.

The catastrophic effects of such an internal American split hardly could be exaggerated. Democratic Western Europe feels itself too weak to stand up against Soviet expansion without American leadership.

Therefore, any failure on Washington’s part to follow through on Mr. Byrnes’ Stuttgart declaration quickly would destroy the close cooperation which Russia’s threats have forced upon democratic nations. They know Russia is in Europe to stay. If they must accept her domination in the end, because of American withdrawal, they know the quicker they make terms with Stalin the better for them.

  • A split between the United Nations and Britain is the second danger.

This is what the Russians work on day and night. First they concentrate their propaganda and diplomatic drives against Britain, meanwhile bidding for a deal with the United States. When that fails, they play it the opposite way.

Cites propaganda

Whether Washington and London have enough intelligence to remember in times of mutual provocation that those conflicts are superficial compared with their common interests is the question. Also important is whether our two peoples are intelligent enough to discount the incessant propaganda in each country against the other.

  • Resignation of British Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin because of ill health could strengthen Russia’s position.

Because Mr. Bevin is a trades union Socialist leader, he has been able to challenge Soviet aggression and rally British majority on his side, which Tory Winston Churchill could not do when in office.

  • Another test whether western powers can hold their own against Soviet pressure in Europe and the Middle East is on economic grounds.

Creation of a strong democratic Europe depends on revival of various means of livelihood and the lifting of low living standards, and on fairly shared prosperity. That in turn depends on a progressive social system and on stability and order. Hunger and chaos are more dangerous threats to democracy, than all the Red armies, spies and puppets combined.

Bread powerful weapon

Specifically, in Germany, Austria, Greece and Italy – countries Russia is trying to grab – bread is a more powerful weapon than bullets. Western powers, led by the United States, must help European nations to help themselves to economic health, for only healthy nations can be free.

It is not the current strength of Russia as such – which is often overrated – but rather the terrible weakness of slowly-convalescing Europe which enables the Russians to bully their way across the continent. So long as that condition continues Russia will be encouraged to grab all she can even at the risk of war with the western powers, especially if they are divided.

NEXT: Does Stalin want war?

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Interesting reading. But no one want another World war so soon after just finishing one. Even Stalin said that the Soviet Union will have to wait at least 20 years before starting some war.