Poll: GOP’s chances better than voters think
Tide strongest in 4 years but half of members doubt own strength
By George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion
The Republican Party’s prospects in the coming presidential election are much better than the average Republican voters is inclined to think.
After seeing the GOP lose three elections in a row, the typical Republican voter is inclined toward a dark outlook when considering his party’s chances for victory next November.
Only about half of all Republicans in a poll just completed by the Institute say they think their party will win.
Yet an Institute survey on actual party strength, reported last week, shows that the Republican tide is running stronger today than at any time in four years.
On the other hand, at a time when Democratic Party prospects are the lowest in four years, a buoyant optimism permeates the Democratic ranks. Nearly two-thirds of all Democratic voters say they think their party will win in November.
To determine relative optimism in the two parties, this question was put to voters by the Institute:
Regardless of what party you yourself favor, which party do you think will win the presidential election?
| Democratic | Republican | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 65% | 17% | 18% |
| Republican | 31% | 49% | 20% |
Actual party strength today, as reported last week on the basis of an Institute survey, indicates that the Republicans and Democrats are running virtually neck and neck. In terms of civilian vote, the party strength of the Democrats is 51%, and of the Republicans 49%.
Normally, the Democrats must have more than 51% – in fact, usually more than 52% – of the popular vote to win a majority in the electoral college.