Poll: Democrats losing their popularity in organized labor
Unions overwhelming favor Roosevelt, give Dewey and MacArthur GOP, lead over Willkie
By George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion
The popularity of the Democratic Party among the rank and file of organized labor has shown a slight decline since mid-December – a decline which coincides with increasing criticism of President Roosevelt by union leaders.
However, in spite of the downward trend, the rank and file of organized labor is still nearly two to one Democratic. What effect the anti-administration views of some of the labor leaders will have on the political thinking of the membership in the next few months remains to be seen. For the present, there can be no question that the trend of labor union sentiment has been steadily away from the Roosevelt administration, especially during the past eight months.
So far as presidential candidates are concerned, those union members who favor a Republican for President pick Governor Thomas E. Dewey as their top choice today. Gen. MacArthur ranks next, and Wendell L. Willkie third.
Union members who favor a Democrat give an overwhelming vote to President Roosevelt as their choice for Democratic nominee. Henry A. Wallace ranks second.
All organized labor
Each union member interviewed was asked, first, what party he would prefer to see win the presidential election this November. The results are given below, together with the trend as revealed in previous surveys. The figures apply to all organized labor as a whole, not to union members in any one union or in any particular section of the country, such as Kentucky, where the Democratic vote in the coalmining areas fell off sharply in the election last November.
| 1936 | 1940 | June 1943 | December 1943 | Today | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 80% | 72% | 69% | 66% | 64% |
| Republican | 20% | 28% | 31% | 34% | 36% |
The trend by CIO and AFL membership is given below:
CIO MEMBERS
| 1936 | 1940 | December 1943 | Today | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 85% | 79% | 68% | 66% |
| Republican | 15% | 21% | 32% | 34% |
AFL MEMBERS
| 1936 | 1940 | December 1943 | Today | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 80% | 71% | 65% | 64% |
| Republican | 20% | 29% | 35% | 36% |
Each union member interviewed was shown a list of presidential candidates most often talked about for 1944, and asked to indicate his present choice for nomination. The results are given below.
One of the surprises is the comparatively high vote for Gen. MacArthur.
Roosevelt-Willkie
In the following table, the labor union vote applies only to union members who choose a Republican for President. Were Roosevelt not a possible candidate, Willkie’s strength with laboring groups would be substantially higher, previous surveys have indicated.
In addition to the labor union vote, the results for the whole nation based on those who named a Republican are given for comparison.
| Labor union members | All U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Dewey | 41% | 42% |
| MacArthur | 29% | 18% |
| Willkie | 20% | 23% |
| Bricker | 5% | 8% |
| Stassen | 3% | 6% |
| Warren | 1% | 3% |
| Johnston | 1% | 3% |
The choice of labor union members who named a Democratic candidate for President show a one-sided picture in favor of Roosevelt as follows:
| Labor union members | |
|---|---|
| Roosevelt | 88% |
| Wallace | 6% |
| Farley | 3% |
| Byrnes | 1% |
| McNutt | 1% |
| Marshall | 1% |