“Ukraine can not win” is the the story Russia wants to sell to win the war:
1 Like
The last 7 minutes talk about concrete steps. Overall I like it but I have always been a Simon fan.
You ask what I am doing? Well I kinda assume you mean my country because I’m useless as a soldier.
In my country, the USA, we have totally taken our eye off the ball. Not our war they say spend our money on our border which makes for much better photographs. I believe we are still expanding missile production and artillery capacity is being doubled but all that could change in the next budget cycle.
Part of America believes Putin is right and this war is the USA’s fault. Our president has never sat down and say why we fight. We have a potato in chief. We have been soundly defeated in the messaging war. There is some new legislation being worked which might be interesting.
No one commented about the Putin interview. I thought it was fascinating to see him state. That Ukraine has been Russian and will be again. I should think that would make many countries uncomfortable because they were Russian too.
No, no, I mean us as individuals. Let me explain.
I do believe in the eventual liberation of all of Ukraine. This is pretty obvious, given russias consistent pattern of starting more occupations. These are costly just as the current full-scale war. At some point russia wont be able to deal with the self-incurred costs and collapse. This is pretty much russian history (Afghanistan, WW1) over the last century and a bit, so its likely to repeat itself.
That said, this day might not be near, if Ukraine continues to lack the required support. Lacking support Ukraine will be forced to widen the war (as it already does). This increases the likelyhood of more countries getting drawn in, which was supposed to be avoided with the aforementioned support.
Now I am asking, what each of us individually is doing, watching WW2 coming to an end on screen, to prepare outselves for a new iteration.
This is not a rethorical question. I am currently working on plans to get my parents out of Germany (both due to the threat of war and the threat of the far-right & us being jews). Beyond that I’m working on some projects to support the war effort and event considering basic training. For a techy nerd, that’s a lot.
What are your thoughts?
2 Likes
yes, yes, they also spread a lot of disinfo, flooding the networks with a lot of bs…
But my friends in the 47th as well as other friends in Ukraine are equally reporting that the situation is very very very dire. Some brigades dont even have HE Leo ammo.
We’re lucky, the russians remain rather inapt. But hope is a terribly strategy.
No the hope is on the experts to work together to solve the problems:
14000 155mm shells in a week is nice, but 14000+ every week is needed.
1 Like
Hope still just is not a strategy.
My thoughts on what you are doing: I would congratulate you on your planning especially for your family. I would say you are a new version of a prepper by which you are taking concrete steps to deal with an event we hope never comes but which would cause. Dire consequences for you if it did.
I would suggest along those lines to consider how to survive if chaos causes supply issue. Look at what it would take to survive for a month without stores. Food, medical and environmental survival. In a general nato war, all might be threatened. Even if you don’t do basic training, gain some weapon skills and if legal, obtain a firearm. Finally apply your tech skills to consider how to do your part. Maybe learn how to use drones as an alternative war tool. You probably won’t be a Rambo but maybe you can be a mcgyver using science and tech to support the cause.
Don’t beat yourself up over this. No country makes enough shells for this kind of war. Even Russia and they have brought in millions of shells from outside.
Until this becomes a priority that countries take seriously supplies will be in doubt. Germany did an impressive job of building LNG handling facilities in short order. If they treated shells as important, they will come. Same with the US
The latest story the Russian media is using:
2 Likes
Listened to this yesterday and now again. I do like this channel though I have to listen carefully.
I agree this is real and don’t really think it’s a big deal unless it’s a big deal to internal German politics. That the Russians can get this is no surprise as they remain a very dangerous intelligence agency. Germans discussing how to use German weapons in hypothetical ways is not surprising either. Not good to hear they are virtually out of missiles but no one makes enough missiles for operational needs.
Finally, the Taurus seems like a model similar to the tomahawk. Maybe a bit stealthier but warhead wise very close. Neither is great for large bridge structures. We have penetrating bombs which would do a number on it but for missiles its a tough well defended target.
2 Likes
A new fantasting beast now under article 5:
1 Like
Fighters are easy to fly, after years of training yes. Beautiful aircraft. This is one aircraft for nato but the added industrial capability is important. It will be interesting to see if the new countries change nato doctrine at all.
2 Likes
Since the fall of the Berlin wall I think we have seen a slow decline of the European military , why spend money on a military when the scary Soviet was no longer scary.
With the invasion of Ukraine politician got scared and see the need to invest in protection.
Now that is has also become clear that Europe can also not trust the US to be a stable partner there is also starting to be a shift to more development of European weapons.
Both investing in the military and weapons take time to take effect and a lot of politics is more of a short term thinking so we will see what will come of this.
3 Likes
Rheinmetall increasing production:
1 Like
While the ground war is give and take with neither side having a clear advantage the same can’t be said for the drone war with Ukraine holding a definite advantage over Russia. Drones have sunk several vessels of the Russian Navy, taken out hundreds if not thousands of pieces of equipment, armour and vehicles and caused countless casualties amongst the Russian ground forces.
Most telling however is the recent and ongoing attacks on Russian oil industry with drones impacting an estimated 16% of oil production at refineries and causing the temporary shutdown of several others over fears of attacks. This has had an almost immediate effect in the field as it has been confirmed that multiple Russian units are stealing fuel from various sources due to a shortage of fuel making the front lines.
It would seem the drone war is solidly in Ukraines favour at the moment with little sign of it slowing down.
3 Likes
Because we do not use an army of trolls:
2 Likes
I do love the research Ryan does. But you have a point. My chief complaint is my government announces aid for Ukraine but doesn’t come forth to explain why it’s important for the US. Something Roosevelt did very well.
2 Likes
Willy convincingly makes the argument that the Russians performed better than many videos and articles tend to suggest. This could have resulted in complacency as the Russians are “clueless” anyway . Like i in World War 2 they can adapt and have great programmers/designers in Russia as well.
Arrogance is stupid and counterproductive. Same happened when the self-proclaimed “ubermensch” Germans found themselves surrounded in Stalingrad and later in Berlin where (spoiler alert) sent waves of German kids to their deaths (fictionary heaven).
I totally not like it and MacGregor and others are WAY TOO positive about the Russians but on the other hand militarily the are not bumbling idiots. And we shouldn’t see them as such. If we take this seriously we can stop them.
Chew
1 Like