Poll: Majority sees European War ending in 1944 (1-22-44)

1

January 22
Duration of war 

Interviewing Date 1/6-11/44
Survey #309-K
Question #1a

How much longer do you think the war with Germany will last?
Will end in first half of 1944 12%
Will end in second half of 1944 46%
Will end in 1945 31%
Will end in 1946 5%
Will end in 1947 or later 1%
No opinion 5% 
Interviewing Date 1/6-11/44
Survey #309-K
Question #1b

How much longer do you think the war with Japan will last?
Will end in first half of 1944 1%
Will end in second half of 1944 5%
Will end in 1945 33%
Will end in 1946 33%
Will end in 1947 or later 20%
No opinion 8%
4 Likes
2

The Pittsburgh Press (January 22, 1944)

Poll: Majority sees European War ending in 1944

Average is October; guesses on Pacific conflict, generally two years
By George Gallup, Director, American Institute of Public Opinion

As of today, a majority of the American people agrees with Gen. Dwight Eisenhower’s prediction, “We will win the European War in 1944.”

The average of all guesses in an Institute poll just completed would put the end of European hostilities in October of this year – only a few weeks before the presidential election.

Public thinking continues along more sober lines, so far as the Japanese conflict goes. Only six of every 100 U.S. voters think the war with the Japs will be over before we enter 1945. The average of all guesses would end the Pacific War in two years.

On Germany, on Japan

As in past polls on the question, field reporters for the Institute put the problem to a representative segment of the total voting population as follows:

How much longer do you think the war with Germany will last?

The same question was asked with reference to Japan, but with sharply contrasting results, as the tables below indicate:

LENGTH OF WAR WITH GERMANY
Will end in first half of 1944 12%
Will end in second half of 1944 46%
Will end in 1945 31%
Will end in 1946 5%
Will end in 1947 or later 1%
No opinion 5%

LENGTH OF WAR WITH JAPAN
Will end in first half of 1944 1%
Will end in second half of 1944 5%
Will end in 1945 33%
Will end in 1946 33%
Will end in 1947 or later 20%
No opinion 8%

Women pessimistic

Other interesting facts brought to light in the present poll:

  • Women are more pessimistic about when the war in Europe will end. Sixty-two percent of the men think the war with Germany will end in 1944; only 52% of the women hold a like opinion.

  • Approximately one year ago, the average guess was that the war with Germany would be over by now. In the summer of 1943, the guess was that the European phase would end in July of this year. Now the average guess is October, or nine months from now.

4 Likes