Taylor: Don’t get excited
By Robert Taylor, Press Washington correspondent
Washington –
The first Congressional elections of 1944 provided two morsels which the members of the House of Representatives have been chewing on for days, what with the entire membership facing a test at the polls next November and the political weather being cloudy.
The elections were held in pivotal Pennsylvania – one in Philadelphia and the other in Montgomery County – to fill vacancies, and resulted in two Republican victories, which were promptly hailed as a trend.
Rep. Charles A. Halleck (R-IN) called the election returns “proof that the New Deal is withering at the grassroots,” and a definite indication that the Republican march to victory in 1944 is picking up speed.
Mr. Halleck is no expert on Pennsylvania politics or he would have excluded Montgomery County, at least, from the scope of his remarks. Montgomery County is referred to proudly by its residents as the wealthiest county in the state and its population makes up a major part of Philadelphia’s swanky “Main Line.”
It is, moreover, the home county of Joseph N. Pew Jr., the Republican leader with apparently inexhaustible patience and campaign funds, as well as other hearty contributors to the GOP cause. It has been Republican as long as anybody can remember. If Montgomery County is a grassroots area, you can bet the grass was carefully tended by a skilled Republican gardener. The chief significance of the special election there is that the Republican organization picked Samuel K. McConnell to fill the seat of J. William Ditter, killed in a plane crash last year.
There is more substance to the claim that the special election in the 2nd District (Philadelphia) represented a Republican advance, but it’s still not an outstanding victory for the GOP.
The district has been represented since 1936 by Democrat James P. McGranery, who resigned from Congress to become assistant to Attorney General Francis Biddle and a potential candidate for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator.
Republicans carried it last week by more than 5,500 votes for Joseph M. Pratt, who polled 24,910 votes to 19,329 for Democrat William A. Barrett.
That’s a clear gain for the Republicans, but subject to some analysis. For instance, Mr. McGranery’s hold on his district – despite his prominence in Congress and in party affairs – has never been too secure in the off years.
When President Roosevelt runs, the Democrats do well in the 2nd District. In 1936, the total vote for Congressional candidates was 107,046 and the Democratic majority was 24,512. In 1938, the vote dropped to 97,813 and the majority to 5,317.
In 1940, the turnout of voters rose again to 102,333 and the majority to 23,355, but in 1942, when only 71,803 ballots were cast in the Congressional race, Mr. McGranery squeaked through by a majority of 713. In last week’s special election, about 45,000 voters cast ballots and Philadelphia’s Republican machine workers carried the election.
Democrats need a large turnout of voters to win in Philadelphia, especially when they are competing against an organization which has just succeeded in winning the mayoralty for another four years and retaining its City Hall patronage.
It’s a fairly academic point, at any rate, because the city’s Congressional districts were reapportioned by the 1943 Legislature and the November election is going to be held in a revised, and more safely Republican, district.
But in the halls of Congress, you can hear dialogs like this:
Republican:
You saw what happened in McGranery’s district. Well, that shows you what to expect in November.
Democrat:
There wasn’t any incentive to vote in this election. Wait until November when the President runs and the voters turn out.