Gould Lincoln: The political mill
By Gould Lincoln
Two weeks hence, the Democrats will be on the eve of their national convention. Today the Democrats have not heard directly from President Roosevelt that he will run again. The same situation existed in 1940, two weeks before the President said he would accept a third-term nomination. He may or may not tell his followers his decision about a fourth-term nomination until the Democratic convention is actually underway.
If he wants the nomination, it is his. He does not have to worry about that. He might worry about another election. And certainly, no man has had as much reason as the President to wish release from the arduous job he has – after approximately 13 years.
The fact remains, however, that he is still to make a formal statement regarding his future political plans. He may feel that he cannot with propriety say whether he will accept a nomination until it has actually been tendered him. But if he has no plan to run for the Presidency again, he is late in disclosing his attitude. Certainly, a sudden declination, made to the delegates assembled in Chicago, would bring about a chaotic situation. No other candidates have been brought forward.
So, it is taken for granted that the President will permit his name to go before the coming convention and that he will accept its decision. Recent visitors at the White House, without quoting Mr. Roosevelt, have come away insisting he will be a candidate. Many weeks ago, Democratic National Chairman Hannegan said flatly he believed the President would run.
The Republicans, having nominated their national ticket – Dewey and Bricker – and written their party platform, are awaiting the results of the Democratic convention. Their campaign and its character will depend on the Democratic nominee and the Democratic platform. All of their platform. All of their speeches, including those at the recent Republican National Convention, have been written in the belief that Mr. Roosevelt will run again. If at the last minute, a new presidential nominee should be trotted out, the Republicans would amend their campaign plans materially.
Far more delegates to the coming Democratic National Convention have been ‘‘instructed” for President Roosevelt than were “instructed” for Governor Dewey before the Republican convention. Yet the “draft” of Mr. Dewey was accomplished with ease. Governor Dewey, like the President, had never said personally he would accept nomination. But some of his closest political friends and advisers went to Chicago, the convention city and issued statements declaring their belief the New York Governor would run if nominated.
It remains to be seen whether the draft of President Roosevelt for a fourth-term nomination can be obtained with as great unanimity as was the draft of Mr. Dewey. Delegations from some of the Southern states, especially Texas, Mississippi and South Carolina, are inimical to a fourth term. Indeed, a revolt not only against the nomination of Mr. Roosevelt but also against his reelection is threatened in the South.
That the “draft” of Mr. Roosevelt will go through, unless he halts it, is certain. But there are drafts and drafts. His “draft” in 1940 met with opposition in the Democratic convention. His own former chief political lieutenant, James A. Farley, was strongly opposed to a third-term nomination. Mr. Farley is still opposed to a President’s having more than two terms in the White House. It is expected he will have part in any attempted insurrection against the renomination of the President that crops up.
If the President is renominated, two New Yorkers, one a former Governor and the other the present Governor, will toe the mark in the presidential race. This recalls the 1920 contest, between Ohioans, one the late President Harding and the other former Governor Cox. In that presidential campaign, Franklin D. Roosevelt was the vice-presidential candidate on the Democratic ticket with Mr. Cox.